Last year, two different data sets yielded two very different theories about where Democrats stand heading into 2024.
On the one hand, there is voting. Survey after survey shows President Biden either tied or trailing Donald J. Trump. Voters, especially young voters and non-white voters, appear to be extremely dissatisfied with the president. No matter how good the economy looks to economists, most voters still say it’s bad.
On the other hand, there are also election results. Almost every time the Democratic Party falls behind in the polls, there is a special election result that helps the party recover. Special elections are held outside of the regular election cycle to fill open seats, and the Democratic Party as a whole has lost ground in these elections since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, according to data compiled by The Daily Kos. That’s four points better than Biden’s 2020 performance.
The limitations of polling are well known, especially nearly a year before an election. Meanwhile, the limitations of relying on special elections are less understood. Unlike polls, special election results are hard facts, so it’s tempting to view them as a clear reading of the 2024 electorate.
However, based on an analysis of voter registration records from more than 50 special elections since the beginning of 2022, special electors are not similar to general districts or the broader population of registered voters. These data may provide insight into which party’s activist base is more vibrant. , but no more.
In a typical special election, half of the voters are 65 or older. Nearly all special election voters participated in recent primaries. Almost everyone is registered as a Democrat or Republican. There are far fewer young voters, undocumented voters, and unaffiliated voters. Nonwhites typically make up a smaller share of the electorate. A general election poll with such demographic characteristics would be laughed out of the room.
As a result, special elections behave very differently than high-turnout elections. They are largely determined by turnout, as the electorate is almost entirely made up of the most partisan and least persuasive voters. At the same time, turnout in special elections is highly volatile, and ultra-low turnout provides turnout advantages that are never available in high-turnout, regularly scheduled general elections.
Therefore, our analysis shows that the source of the Democratic Party’s strength in last year’s special was very simple: turnout.
Biden voters had higher turnout than Trump voters in the special election, according to estimates based on voter file data. This turnout advantage explains the overall Democratic performance. Even more convincingly, turnout accounts for precinct-by-district results, and the special election results match the New York Times’ estimate of the number of Biden voters.
A similar analysis of a general election or referendum on abortion looks quite different. In elections with high turnout, turnout plays a smaller role. Not only is turnout less volatile, but many persuasive voters join the electorate, sometimes even crossing their precincts to vote for a different party or a particular issue.
The same story is evident in Wisconsin, where the Times has conducted more than 7,000 interviews since 2019, allowing it to dig deeper into voters with lower turnout than elsewhere. Unlike most states, Wisconsin’s general elections are held outside of the year, resulting in significantly lower turnout than midterm elections. These are not special elections, but they are drawn from the same group of passionate, partisan, and older voters. The Times’ data shows that nearly all of Democratic success in recent races, as well as the crucial state Supreme Court race in April, is due to a significant turnout advantage that differs from the federal general election. Suggests.
The final confirmation comes from the Times/Siena poll. Since 2019, we have interviewed 1,800 respondents in precincts that held special elections, including 1,000 in precincts that held elections after Dobbs. These interviews are concentrated in the few states where we conducted the most polling. Her 17th district is the only one with at least 10 valid voters for the special election. But the results nevertheless show that Biden received about 6 percentage points more support among voters in the special election certified in the post-Dobbs election than among registrants overall in the same district.
How can Democrats have such an advantage in turnout? It’s not just demographics. Yes, according to the Times/Siena poll, college graduates make up a large proportion of special districts, about 10 percentage points higher than registered voters overall. But the Democratic Party’s dominance runs deeper. Across all demographic categories, Democrats appear to do better with high-turnout voters than with demographically identical low-turnout voters. For example, a Times/Siena poll found that 96% of college-educated registered Democrats who voted in the special election supported Biden, while 83% of those who did not vote in the same district supported Biden. supported.
This kind of deep advantage is similar to what used to be called “resistance,” the extraordinary rise in liberal voters defeating Republicans since Mr. Trump’s election and again in the wake of Mr. Roe’s ouster. The easiest way to explain this is by showing a certain level of motivation.
This energy from committed Democrats fueled the party’s success in the special election and helped it hold its own in the 2022 midterm elections.
But the findings suggest there is little reason to expect the Democratic Party’s special electoral strength to persist in the general election, when voters of all stripes, not just the most avid voters, will be at the polls. It suggests.
These differences between special election voters and presidential election voters also suggest that there is not necessarily a contradiction between Mr. Biden’s weakness in the polls against Mr. Trump and the strength of the Democratic Party in special elections. Special election voters tend to be a much more pro-Biden group than the registered voters represented in the polls. In these elections, Democrats are almost completely insulated from Mr. Biden’s weaknesses among young people, nonwhites, and less engaged voters.
But the special election results nonetheless suggest a modest but still significant turnout advantage for Democrats in 2024. Trump’s weakness among high-turnout voters, such as those participating in special elections, and Biden’s weakness among low-turnout voters suggest Trump’s weakness. there is a possibility. Mr. Biden is in a somewhat better position than early polls of registered voters suggest.
In fact, a previous poll by The New York Times and Siena College found that although Biden had a 2-point lead among registered voters overall, he had a 2-point lead over Trump among likely voters. It turned out that he was in the lead.
