As the year draws to a close, analysts, consulting firms, industry insiders, and various commentators are once again issuing their predictions for communications in 2024. Despite their diverse research interests and business focuses, nearly all of these predictions share a common theme this time around. The expected impact of artificial intelligence (AI) across industries in the coming year.
The message is that the impact of AI will permeate everything from networks, data centers, Internet of Things (IoT), devices, and semiconductors to network operations, customer service and experience management, data security, marketing, and business transformation. That’s what it means.
The promised benefits of AI will be tempered by its challenging and potentially highly disruptive impacts. And observers hope that in 2024, it will become even clearer how and where AI can be used beneficially and productively.
More broadly, PwC analysts expect investment growth in both fixed and mobile broadband networks to decline from 2024 onwards. Equipment vendors are also cautious, with Nokia predicting a difficult mobile broadband market in 2024, especially given India’s rapid 5G rollout in 2023.
In the fixed broadband market, the majority view is that fiber broadband deployment offering 10Gb connectivity will continue to expand in most developed and developing markets, with government funding expected to improve over the coming year. .
5G still underperforms, but satellite services will take off
As in 2023, 5G performance will be the focus of predictions for the year ahead. According to network data and performance analyst firm Ookla, networks have fallen short of their promise to deliver new value-added services leveraging 5G’s additional bandwidth, leaving service providers struggling to recoup their investments in the technology. He says he is having a hard time. The industry needs to find ways to monetize 5G beyond fixed wireless access use cases, he said, and find ways to support future investments in standalone (SA) 5G and 5G Advanced. adds.
However, 5G monetization prospects may improve as key technologies and features of 3GPP Release-17 are expected to be commercialized during 2024. These include RedCap IoT technology, which is already being piloted by the likes of Huawei and Ericsson and is expected to move toward wider commercial deployment next year. .
Release 17 also introduces new radio (NR) support, primarily for non-terrestrial network (NTN) technologies such as satellite communications. According to Juniper Research, the economic downturn in 2023 had the effect of constraining the development of satellite-based 5G, but the rapid growth in the number of 5G subscribers worldwide (to reach 1.6 billion by the end of 2023) The value proposition of the base service has been significantly improved.
Commenters argue that satellite 5G could play an important role in the development of 5G networks in areas such as private networks, IoT, and mobile broadband, as well as provide more economical services and There is broad agreement that it will also support improved 5G service coverage in underserved areas. High speed internet connection.
Consulting firm Deloitte reports that interest in satellites’ ability to expand connectivity is growing, with an expanding ecosystem of satellite and mobile network operators, handset manufacturers, and semiconductor companies expected to launch satellites by 2024. The company expects to sell more than 220 million smartphones that can connect to the service.
Equipment vendor Ericsson says fully integrated system-on-chip (SoC) solutions expected in 2024 will help propel NTN forward and provide economies of scale needed for global penetration of satellite services in mobile phone equipment. I believe that. The company said in its annual mobility report that the service is expected to initially focus on text messaging and low data rate services.
According to Juniper Research, service development is expected to surge in 2024 due to an increase in the number of satellite launches, driven by the activity of satellite network operators such as Starlink, Intelsat, Inmarsat, and Satelliot.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects satellite internet providers such as Starlink and UK-based OneWeb to continue expanding their partnerships with Asian telcos in 2024, while in India domestic provider Jio Fierce competition is expected from Yahoo! and Tata. Canada’s Telesat is licensed to provide satellite services.
Fiber broadband will be expanded and supported by home WiFi
As the fixed broadband market continues to expand fiber deployment in both developed and developing markets, the need to upgrade home Wi-Fi networks to pass increased bandwidth to devices in the home is occurring, he said. Wireless Broadband Alliance.
Key trends such as the proliferation of cloud gaming services are fueling demand for high-speed, low-latency connections, driving demand for more bandwidth in the home. According to WBA, one of the results is the rapid adoption of Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7, which also have the benefit of accessing additional spectrum in the 6GHz band as more countries open up the band. That’s what it means.
At the same time, WBA expects pilot projects and trials of TIP Open Wi-Fi (Telecom Infrastructure Project’s open-source, multi-vendor Wi-Fi architecture) to take off in developing countries and price-sensitive markets. We expect that open decomposition models will prove attractive.
Geopolitical issues will continue to impact technology and markets
According to the EIU, geopolitics will continue to influence technology in 2024 as technology competition between the US and China intensifies in areas such as AI, chips and quantum technology. The EIU said it was unclear how far either side wanted to go when it came to restricting investment by Chinese companies in markets such as the US and Europe, or how access to key markets such as China would limit further measures. There is.
“Other countries will continue to pit the two leaders against each other to suit their own strategic interests and budgets,” the EIU notes.
Climate change concerns and sustainability will drive change
According to Deloitte, the telecommunications sector’s efforts to further reduce carbon emissions in 2024 will include the transition from copper networks to energy-efficient fiber optics, the retirement of power-hungry 3G networks, and energy savings. The use of technology will be encouraged. With 5G wireless gear.
Deloitte predicts that telecommunications companies around the world could reduce their carbon emissions by 2%, or 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), in 2024, with the potential for similar reductions in 2025. Masu.
Juniper Research also expects carriers to focus on new initiatives aimed at reducing the environmental impact of communications over the next year. Increased network automation through means such as AI and machine learning will improve efficiency, but the need for more base stations and wider geographic coverage, coupled with the introduction of higher frequency bands, will means that network equipment will focus on more features. Uses less energy.
The inevitable rollout of 6G networks will likely require ever-higher frequency bands, further increasing the need for more energy-efficient equipment, Juniper Research said.
Similarly, in data centers, AI is accelerating density growth while doubling or tripling power consumption levels, says networking and data center equipment vendor NTT. This is “wreaking havoc on corporate net-zero targets”, with energy providers looking to explore more sustainable options using technologies such as immersion cooling, district heating projects and solar panels in space. Close cooperation is necessary.
First step to 6G
While 5G services strive to improve performance and ROI, 2024 also marks the official start of the 6G race, according to research firm Omdia. The ITU’s World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC23), to be held in November-December, seeks to identify spectrum frequency bands that will support 6G services.
The WRC23 agenda includes issues such as the allocation of spectrum in the upper 6GHz band to wireless communications services and potential competition with existing fixed link and satellite services.
New solutions bring new challenges
Commentators generally agree that the global economic downturn, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, will continue to impact the communications sector in 2024. At the same time, technologies such as satellite 5G and enhanced WiFi promise to expand connectivity and provide richer service experiences. Emerging markets are expected to offer many benefits for businesses and consumers.
However, these new technologies also bring new challenges, and AI is being looked to to continue driving cost reductions, increased efficiency, and increased sustainability. In early 2024, Developing Telecoms will publish a more detailed summary of its forecasts. About AI and its impact on communications in the coming year.
