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U.S. school enrollment remained fairly stable from 2021 to 2022, but the number of K-12 students remained below pre-pandemic levels, according to new federal data released Monday.
The National Center for Educational Statistics shows that enrollment is still 2% lower than 2019 numbers, despite the number of students being around 50 million. Only Idaho and North Dakota saw enrollment increase by about 2% during this period, while several states, including California, Mississippi and New York, saw enrollment declines of at least 5%.
The data supports previous state-level numbers and studies that point to a decline in students from traditional school districts and a shift to private schools, home schools and new models such as microschools and hybrid programs. These trends have added to a massive decline in the number of school-age children that had been going on even before the coronavirus era. Add all this together, and experts say most school districts aren’t expected to see growth anytime soon, and many have already announced school closures.
“This national decline in population may have implications for whether many schools can reasonably expect enrollment to rebound,” said Thomas Dee, a Stanford University economist who has been tracking pandemic-era enrollment data. “It’s having a primary impact.” As America’s population continues to age, “we’re seeing the effects of that on our schools, which are enduring declining enrollment and associated pressures to close schools and lay off staff.” he added.
In December, NCES released data showing that private school enrollment increased slightly during the same period that public school enrollment saw the largest decline. Later this year, officials are expected to release new data on students attending private schools and those learning from home. But even these numbers can leave some questions unanswered.
Sophocris Goulas, a Brookings Institution researcher who also analyzes enrollment data, explains why we expect the number of home-educated students to increase, even though so much home-schooling goes unreported. “There is,” he said.
Although enrollment remained relatively flat from 2021 to 2022, increasing by less than 1%, there was still wide variation at the state level. Louisiana had the largest increase, at 5%, while several states, including California, Colorado, Illinois and New York, saw declines of at least 4%.
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