A data backlash is occurring.
Sometimes expressed quietly, but often heard loudly in a room full of influence. And the complaints are always the same. Data imposes rules on advertising and inhibits imagination.
While this is true, the answer is not to throw away data. It’s about evolving the way we use data.
The data should not be used to provide instructions, instructions, or generate ideas. It’s a human job to think of good ideas.
Instead, you need to use data to turn ideas into action. To demonstrate why the idea is broadly relevant, to show what can be done with it, and to get people to act on it.
This is the superpower of good data, and advertising needs it now more than ever.
Problems arise when using data for idea generation
Data haters are right when they say that data can’t imagine a better future, it can only explain what happened in the past. And you are right to say that if your competitors have the same description of the same past, there is no advantage available.
To see why, consider an AI-generated ad. What AI does is look at past ads, analyze data about what worked, and then regurgitate the best parts and combine them into new forms. This is an enhanced version of idea generation that utilizes effect data and analysis.
New evidence is that this works initially. AI ads perform better than ads created by humans. For example, the chart below shows the data- and AI-generated brand health scores for car ads in blue and people in pink. On average, AI ads have a higher brand health score and misfired ads are more likely to never air.
The study’s authors are positive about the role of AI in ad creation, but also acknowledge that the algorithms need to be trained on something. So far, it’s artificial advertising that data has shown works.
But can AI continue to be more effective than humans?
Well, if everyone’s AI bases their ads on the same set of good ads from the past, all new ads will look the same.
The AI then starts learning from the past regurgitation of the original set of ideas. If the stock of new ideas created by humans dwindles, people who watch ads will become so bored that all ads will stop working.
This is a prediction made by John Hegarty long before generative AI was introduced. It remains to be seen whether advances in AI will prove him wrong, but there’s a good chance he’ll be even more right in 2024.
Dream + Data = Action
However, it would be a mistake to claim that there is no place for data to play a role in marketing and advertising. Not just because saying things like that in public makes you look dusty, but because data is powerful when combined with ideas.
Data can and should be used to test the strength of ideas and see if findings apply broadly.
And when these tests pass, the data adds a solid, reliable, and secure quality to your idea. It can be introduced to make people feel safe.
The graph below is big picture evidence that the combination of good ideas and good data can change the world. This is a measure of short-termism in the IPA databank, the percentage of all participants who advertised that he had to pay back within 6 months.
This chart shows the power of combining good ideas and good data. That’s because in 2013, Le Binet and Peter Field published data analysis showing that excessive short-termism is a problem.
“The Long and The Short of It” did a great job of showcasing the data with a killer statistic: “Spend 60% on Brand” and a killer chart to boot. And it worked.
At the time of publication, this chart shows a tipping point, where the proportion with a short-term horizon stops increasing and begins to slowly decline over time. So exactly what this data analysis advised began to happen.
This is a big story, but similar things happen every day on a smaller scale within companies. People who have a good idea and know how to support it with killer charts and stats get great initiatives off the ground.
Just as major financial services companies are using data to rebalance media budgets away from spending a little money on search. The data makes it clear that it’s a good idea, and it also helps ensure that your performance marketing team can benefit and not suffer.
Alternatively, some NGOs use data on emissions associated with advertising spend to help advertising agencies decide which clients to pitch to if they want to go green.
Data makes it easier to take the right action by understanding costs and benefits.
The economy will be “so-so” in 2024, but the marketing plan won’t be.
Just turn it into data
In summary, the data haters are right and they are wrong.
You’re right that data isn’t the best starting point for thinking about effective advertising messages, copy, images, and movies. But it is wrong to say that data is ruining the industry.
It is difficult for organizations to act. Investing in marketing can be a challenge, just like purchasing a large new IT system. Gartner research shows that committee decision-making is slow, with nearly 77% saying it is very difficult to reach a decision.
Much like a couch potato, it’s very easy for an organization’s inner athlete to stay inside.
And just like a particular famous tagline or a particular brand of new training equipment, data is what helps organizations move forward.
No matter where your ideas come from, if you want them to be credible, convincing, and persuasive, you need data.
Grace Kite is the founder of Magic Numbers, which provides marketers with practical training and human-friendly analytics.
