The Earth is experiencing a heat wave, and the latest temperature readings aren’t very reassuring. Last week, climate data released by Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, better known as C3S, issued new warnings about the impending climate crisis hitting humanity. For the first time in human history, temperatures have risen 1.5 degrees Celsius for 12 consecutive months. -Industrial year.
But to understand the true scale of the crisis, let’s take a closer look at what this data shows.
According to C3S data, for the 12 months ending February 2024, i.e. from February 2023 to January 2024, the 19th century standard (pre-industrial average), known as the “pre-industrial average” A temperature increase of 1.52°C was observed. It was created by scientists as a baseline for tracking changes in global temperatures as the use of fossil fuels accelerated the rate at which greenhouse gases were emitted into the atmosphere.
Additionally, this temperature increase will be further accelerated by the naturally occurring El Niño event, with the effects of storms, droughts, and fires hitting the planet as climate change, causing record warming in 2023 and by the end of the calendar year 2023. It is likely to be the hottest year yet, it added. The past 100,000 years.
The 1.5 degrees Celsius mark first entered our consciousness thanks to the Paris Convention, adopted by nearly 200 countries in 2015 to limit global temperature rise to that range, and to that extent. However, despite last year’s average temperature, it cannot be said that the standard of 1.5 degrees Celsius has been broken. This requires measurements over decades, not just one year. Nevertheless, this is a stark warning about how quickly the world is about to cross that threshold.
Now, back to what the data tells us about the magnitude of the crisis at hand.
Separating the data for the analyzed period by month shows that the average temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold in six of the past seven months. These are July 2023, September 2023, October 2023, November 2023, December 2023, and January 2023. The two months of March 2023 and his August 2023 were barely below the 1.5°C threshold, with a monthly average of 1.49°C measured. .
chart 1
It seems pretty easy to establish a trend from this. All of the months above the 1.5°C threshold have come in late 2023, when El Niño (a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters) began. August, the only month in the second half of this year that did not meet this standard, fell below the standard by a margin of 1/100th of a degree.
Breaking this down even further, looking at average temperatures by day, provides further insight into why the rise has been distinct and stable rather than an anomaly. This phenomenon has continued into 2024, meaning that the year started much earlier than 2023.
chart 2
Another interesting aspect of decomposition is that changes in temperature can be better quantified.
For example, looking at data through the first half of 2023, there were 17 days in the 181-day period from January 1 to July 30 when global daily surface temperatures exceeded 1.5°C. This means the world exceeded the 1.5°C mark on about 9% of days in the first half of this year.
However, in a 184-day period from July 1 to December 31, the same limit was violated for more than 148 days. In other words, the global warming threshold of 1.5°C was exceeded on just over 80% of all days in the second half of 2023.
This trend is even worse when looking at the first 38 days of 2024 (this data is available and can be analyzed). So far this year, there have only been three days below the 1.5°C mark – by comparison, the average global temperature has only dropped marginally to 1.46°C, 1.44°C and 1.48°C since January 12th. It was only one day until the 14th of the month. The remaining 35 global averages are consistently above the norm.
Breaking down the data in this way reveals that the global average temperature is increasing almost constantly. There are some days when the temperature drops temporarily, but the overall trend cannot be denied. Global warming is progressing rapidly.
This is not just a scientific observation. It’s a call to action. Warming trends call for urgent measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. Now is the time to take action. The data serves as a stark reminder of the risks involved.
The impact is far-reaching. Sea level rise, extreme weather events and ecosystem destruction are just some of the potential impacts. Although the data presented here focuses on temperature, it is an important part of understanding the bigger picture of the climate crisis.
HT News Editor Jamie Malick analyzes datasets for in-depth analysis of important news
