- Written by Frank Gardner
- BBC security correspondent
Houthis have been targeting ships in the Red Sea for months
Revenge takes many forms. Yemen’s Houthis have made no secret of their determination to retaliate against US-led airstrikes targeting Western missile and drone launch sites.
These are likewise in response to more than 30 attacks by the Houthis on international ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which they claim are supporting Palestinians in Gaza.
The stakes have now been raised.
Yemen’s legitimate government in Aden, recognized by the United Nations, says the Houthis, who took control of much of the country in 2014, now run under the Red Sea and have disrupted vital undersea communications cables, including internet links linking Asia and Europe. He warned her that he was threatening to do so.
The warning came after a Houthi-linked channel on the Telegram messaging app posted a map showing an undersea cable route in the Red Sea.
Could the Houthis disrupt these lines? If I could, I almost certainly would.
The group reportedly briefly plotted a map showing the confluence of undersea communication cables passing through the coastline as it passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is only 20 miles (32 km) wide at its narrowest point. He claims to have accessed it.
But the fiber cables that carry 17% of the world’s internet traffic are mostly on the ocean floor, hundreds of meters below the surface, far beyond the reach of divers.
The United States and Russia are believed to have the naval capabilities to reduce both countries. This involves deploying deep-sea submersibles from a mothership and using giant scissors to effectively cut cables on the ocean floor.
But it will be even more difficult for the Houthis.
Rear Admiral John Gower, a former Royal Navy submarine commander, says of claims the group is threatening to sabotage cables: “Unless it’s an attack on the terminal, I judge that to be a bluff.”
“This requires capable allies, but [someone with] Submersibles and localization capabilities [the cables]”.
The Houthis have an ally in Iran. With support from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Houthis have built a formidable arsenal of missiles and drones.
Over the past eight years, they have fired at warships from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom, as well as any vessels suspected of having ties to Israel, the United States, or the United Kingdom.
So could Iran allow the Houthis to cut the undersea cables?
“We’ve never seen anything that could touch these cables in Iranian orbit, certainly not a submarine,” says Tom Sharp, a former commander-in-chief of the Royal Navy.
“Diving is an option, but it’s so deep and hectic that I think you might overdo it,” he says. Agreeing with Maj. Gen. Gower’s opinion, Commander Sharp said, “I think this is a bluff.”
Enabling Iran’s allies to sabotage the world’s undersea internet cables would be a dangerous move for Iran as well.
Neither Iran nor the United States wants all-out war against each other, and they have made that clear.
The current conflict between the United States and Iran’s proxies and allies around the Middle East is moderated to some degree. The United States gave several days of warning and allowed the evacuation of key personnel before attacking Iranian-backed militia bases in Iraq and Syria.
Cutting global communications cables would be a major escalation that could lead to retaliatory attacks on Iran itself.
“Iran will be nervous about expanding its global subversive activities.” [to shipping]” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, who served as British ambassador to Yemen from 2015 to 2017.
“Iranians may resort to cyber options sooner rather than infrastructure sabotage,” he added.
In conclusion, it will be difficult for the Houthis to carry out the threats they recently made on their Telegram channel.
It would be technically difficult and politically risky for Iran, which sees Western powers as responsible for all Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
But the Houthis have surprised their opponents before, firing a missile at a Saudi oil depot in Jeddah just before the 2022 Formula One Grand Prix.
They have also endured nearly eight years of intensive airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition, which has failed to reverse the illegal takeover.
And today, despite repeated U.S.-led airstrikes on missile and drone bases, there is no sign of backing down in the confrontation with the West.
The Houthis are hated and feared by many Yemenis in areas outside their control, but they have become a force to be reckoned with.
