Carjackings and auto thefts have increased significantly compared to pre-pandemic numbers, sparking fear and calls for action in many U.S. cities.
According to the Criminal Justice Council’s latest crime trends report, auto thefts in 2023 increased by 29% from the previous year, while auto burglaries slightly decreased by 5% in about 40 American cities. However, the report says that from 2019 to 2023, auto theft and carjacking increased dramatically by 105% and 93%, respectively.
The five cities with the highest year-over-year increases in auto theft from 2022 to 2023 were Rochester, New York; Baltimore; Buffalo, New York. Charlotte, North Carolina. And Cincinnati. The District of Columbia had the highest carjacking rate per 100,000 residents in 2023. Baltimore; Memphis, Tennessee. Chicago; and Denver.
Many blame the surge in car thefts on social media trends among teenagers exposing vulnerabilities in certain types of cars, particularly Kia and Hyundai models. But the varying reliability of auto theft data at different levels of law enforcement and the lack of national carjacking data make it difficult to determine what or who is responsible for the surge. It’s getting difficult.
As with many other crimes, FBI data on carjackings and auto thefts is limited because law enforcement agencies collect and submit data differently. The federal Bureau of Justice Statistics also hasn’t released updated statistics on carjackings since October 2022, which tracks crimes that occurred through 2021. This poses a significant challenge to policy makers seeking to allocate police resources to communities that need them most.
“You certainly don’t want people on a plane blindly making decisions about public safety,” said Alex Piquero, a professor of criminology at the University of Miami and former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics. .
Ernesto Lopez, a research expert at the Criminal Justice Council, said in an email to Stateline that anecdotal evidence on social media can significantly sway public perceptions of safety and crime.
Josh Rovner, director of youth justice at the Sentencing Project, agreed: “The fragmented information we have about youth involvement is easily overstated and misunderstood.”
We need local law enforcement to not only create that data and report it internally to the community, but also for policy action.
– Alex Piquero, Professor of Criminology, University of Miami
Data on carjackings, especially at the national level, are difficult to obtain. Additionally, despite the increased availability of auto theft data, its reliability varies by level of law enforcement, with some local governments failing to submit data to federal agencies or not collecting information at all. or
“Local law enforcement agencies need to create that data and not only report it internally to the community, but also for policy action,” Piquero said.
What the data says
Overall crime in the United States has been declining since its peak in the 1990s. According to the National Crime Victimization Survey, in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available, there were 23.5 violent crimes for every 1,000 Americans ages 12 and older.
Violent victimization rates increased by 42% in 2022 compared to 2021, but have declined overall over the past 30 years.
However, carjackings and auto thefts have increased in 2020 compared to before the coronavirus pandemic. It’s hard to say exactly what’s behind the surge, but some crime experts say economic turmoil during the pandemic, as well as a relative increase in crime rates, may be contributing factors. Suggests. Stealing cars and parts for financial gain has increased the appeal of car-related crimes.
Carjackings are less common than auto thefts, but they are more violent. In the case of a carjacking, the perpetrator confronts the car owner directly, whereas auto theft usually occurs when the car is unoccupied. Auto theft includes the theft of an entire vehicle or specific parts such as tires, rims, or catalytic converters. The difference between the two crimes is whether violence is used to steal the car.
In the District of Columbia, police recorded 958 carjackings last year, but only made 173 arrests, according to the Metropolitan Police Department’s carjacking dashboard. 62% of the suspects were under the age of 18.
The overrepresentation of juveniles in Washington, D.C.’s arrest numbers may be because they are more likely to be arrested or because they are more likely to commit crimes together, said Rovner of the Sentencing Project.
Nationally, the number of adults and juveniles arrested for auto theft has consistently declined since the 1980s, according to data from the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. In the 1980s and 1990s, juveniles were arrested at about four times the rate of adults, according to an analysis of federal data by the Criminal Justice Council. By 2020, the proportion of adults and juveniles was about the same.
Misconceptions, such as overemphasizing the role juveniles play in carjackings and auto thefts, can lead to flawed policies that may not enhance public safety, said Josh Weber, deputy director of the Division of Corrections and Reentry. of the Council on State Governments Justice Center, a think tank focused on breaking the cycle of incarceration, which can lead to sexual and, in some cases, worsening conditions.
“[These misconceptions] “Inevitably this tends to lead to more reactionary and punitive policies rather than policies based on research and data,” said Weber, who also heads the center’s juvenile justice program.
“Research consistently shows that detaining more children, incarcerating more children, and pushing more children into the juvenile justice system is a bad public safety strategy.” added Weber. “It actually increases the likelihood that kids will reoffend.”
Responding to the rapidly increasing number of vehicle crimes
The “super-predator” mentality of the 1990s, fueled by generations of fear of ruthless and violent young offenders, profoundly shaped criminal justice policy for decades. This theory of crime has led to harsher sentences, higher rates of juvenile incarceration, and a focus on punitive measures rather than rehabilitation.
“We’re always at risk when people fear crime and instinctively seek to impose punishment. We’ve been here before,” Rovner said. “One of the reactions that comes out of that is the idea that the serious response is to send children to adult courts, adult prisons, adult prisons. That’s the absolute worst response in terms of public safety. is.”
Politicians love to cite crime data. That’s often wrong.
Rather, some experts argue that evidence-based approaches not only address crime but also provide supports for youth, such as investing in behavioral health services and community-based initiatives aimed at reducing and preventing violence. They argue that it is more effective to move to a more effective approach.
“Despite the media coverage, despite the rhetoric, the reality is that we’re focusing on policies that are based on data and research, not just what sounds good,” said Webber of the Council of State Governments Judicial Center. “There is,” he said.
“This shouldn’t be a partisan issue,” Weber said. “A data-driven, research-based practice should be attractive to both parties.”
Crime experts say car owners can also take simple but important precautions to significantly reduce the risk of theft, such as not leaving their cars unlocked or driving unattended. states that it can be done. And policymakers at all levels of government are increasingly holding automakers accountable for designing vehicles that may be susceptible to vandalism.
“It’s important to recognize that data can certainly guide us,” Rovner says. “Regardless of whether the number of arrests goes up or down, what we should be concerned about is what’s best for our children and what’s best for public safety.”
