The 5G hype is real. People have high expectations for 5G, but their expectations vary widely. Some expectations call for faster network connectivity, while others tout the prospect of smart vehicles and satellite connectivity. But how realistic are these predictions?
Current 5G technology is just an evolution of 4G LTE in the form of non-standalone (NSA) 5G. While NSA 5G is an advancement, it falls far short of the hype and cannot support cutting-edge use cases until it is fully mature. Chris Antlitz, principal analyst at Technology Business Research, said communications providers continue to invest billions of dollars in 5G development, but complexity is making true 5G a reality. Stated.
People around the world may have high hopes for 5G, but its development appears to be different than expected. As a result, consumers and businesses will have to wait for further additions, as true 5G connectivity will not be available until the late 20s.
The global 5G market has passed its peak
Antlitz said carriers introduced 5G faster than other previous generation cell phone technologies. Although accelerated adoption may seem like an advantage, this rapid growth is hurting the global 5G market.
Pressure from governments and competitors initially led major providers in the U.S. and China to deploy 5G at scale. Global 5G market spending appeared to be increasing around the world, but in reality, developments in the US and China are distorting the perception. Both markets peaked in 2021 and 2022 and have declined since then. While spending in other markets around the world is currently increasing, the global market is declining as two major markets have halted similar investments, Antlitz said.
“The compression in scale and time is unprecedented, which is why the traditional curve looks a little different than it has in the past,” he said.
Telecommunications carriers are struggling with 5G development
Many challenges are impacting 5G development, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the complexity of 5G technology, and the lack of skilled 5G professionals. The rush to quickly deploy 5G means telecom providers have released an unfinished technology that currently doesn’t meet many of its expectations.
For example, 5G millimeter wave (mmWave) spectrum, which operates at high band frequencies, enables high bandwidth and low latency. However, telecom providers are struggling to operate 5G within their spectrum.
Millimeter wave signals do not travel more than a few thousand feet and cannot easily penetrate objects. When mmWave signals try to pass through objects, they can reflect off obstacles and interfere with other signals, reducing network quality. Additionally, 5G is not only difficult to achieve, but there are also few engineers with the skills to operate 5G networks. Telecommunications providers are working to overcome these pitfalls, but as a result, 5G development is taking longer.
“We will get there, but the pace of breakthroughs is nowhere near the timelines people are announcing. We have a long way to go,” Antlitz said.
SA 5G is further delayed
Currently, most 5G deployments operate as NSA rather than Standalone (SA) 5G. NSA 5G is faster and has more capacity than 4G LTE, but it doesn’t run on the actual 5G core. Rather, Antlitz said, the NSA is using his existing 4G infrastructure to support 5G, so it’s more like a bandage. Only 20% of global providers have released SA 5G, he added.
Although the SA 5G network offers many features such as network slicing, ultra-low latency, high-speed connectivity, and other features, few telecom providers have deployed it as there is little incentive to do so.
“There’s no real reason to make a significant move to SA unless the ROI is achieved. The ROI hasn’t been achieved yet,” Antlitz said.
Telecommunications providers have invested billions of dollars in 5G spectrum and infrastructure, but have failed to generate an ROI. 5G has several promising active use cases, including fixed wireless access. But many of the touted use cases for 5G, such as vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity, satellite calling, and metaverse networking with augmented reality, will take time to become a reality.
6G is unlikely to arrive soon
Rumors of 6G have surfaced in the telecom industry, but providers are not ready for its release, especially given the current challenges of 5G. Antlitz said carriers will focus on true 5G before tackling 6G because 6G is significantly more complex than 5G.
In the future, when 5G is fully developed and providers start developing 6G, they may release a more enhanced version of 5G, 5G Advanced, and sell and release it as 6G. That’s expensive, Antlitz said.
5G enables digital transformation with other technologies
Antlitz said 5G is currently two to three years behind the development cycle predicted by experts. However, by the end of the decade, businesses will use 5G in combination with other advanced technologies to drive digital transformation, he said.
Some of this integration is already happening today. For example, AI and machine learning algorithms can help companies make 5G more energy efficient and sustainable. Edge computing is a mechanism that brings data processing closer to end users, allowing 5G networks to process data more quickly and seamlessly.
“It’s not just 5G,” Antlitz said. “5G plus edge computing, plus AI, and all these technologies. [Enterprises are] Together, we will use these tools to drive digital transformation in the way we have been touting. ”