I have a conflicted relationship with polling data.
On the one hand, it’s interesting to read what the data says and try to diagnose what people think and what it all means from 30,000 feet up.
On the other hand, when I look at the polling numbers, especially those for the past few presidential elections, I wonder how much credibility we should give to all the data that’s being thrown at us right now.
Polling companies have failed to truly assess the Donald Trump phenomenon over the past three election cycles, to the point where people questioned the reliability and viability of polls after Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
With both parties now officially nominating their presidential candidates and the election campaign nearing its final stages, polls of all sizes will likely be released daily on how the race between President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is doing.
The recent mixed results don’t mean you shouldn’t read into every bit of available data so much as dig into the numbers after an hour.
Polls like the recently released Franklin & Marshall Survey of Registered Voters are particularly interesting because they cover a wide range of topics.
Indeed, when the poll was released a few weeks ago, the first figure to note was the ranking of the presidential race between Harris and Trump (Harris had a 3-point lead before the convention).
Other important data included:
• 84 percent think schools should be allowed to limit students’ access to cell phones during school hours. I agree. There is enough technology in classrooms that students don’t need access to it all day.
• Nearly half of respondents believe hunting should be allowed on Sundays, while 34 percent are opposed to adding Sundays to the limited calendar. I’m probably one of the 16 percent who said they don’t know, as I understand the reasons for and against the practice.
• More than three-quarters of voters support opening up primary elections. Openness gives registered independent or third party voters the opportunity to participate in all elections, not just general elections and primaries that have ballot issues. I am in the majority on that point. We can’t have hundreds of thousands of voters excluded because too many seats are decided in primaries.
Returning to the presidential election, when I glanced at the favorability ratings for Harris and Trump, I did a triple take.
A quarter of voters (28%) rated Trump “very favorably,” consistent with a standard we’ve heard from his most ardent supporters for years; for Harris, the figure was 33%.
Those weren’t as striking as the unpopularity: 50% of voters viewed Trump as “very unpopular,” and 47% felt the same about Harris.
There is certainly some overlap in opinions, as some people surveyed likely have “very unfavorable” feelings toward both candidates, and while the sample size is small (920 Pennsylvania voters), there is a large percentage who dislike the candidate who will occupy the White House on January 20, 2025.
It will be interesting to see how these numbers trend over the next couple of months — or at least, I think it will be.
Bill Bowman is editor of The (Sunbury) Daily Item and regional editor for CNHI.
