Market participants and investors will be keeping an eye on several stock market triggers in the second week of March. During the week, the focus will shift to key economic indicators, election announcements for the 2024 general election, foreign capital inflows, and global indicators.
Domestic stock benchmarks had a volatile week, but they extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive week and hit a new record high. This was the highest record in the past three months. Frontline indices Sensex and Nifty 50 hit new highs at 22,525.65 and 74,245.17, respectively, up about 3% each in four weeks.
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NSE Nifty 50 ended the week at 22,493.55 and Sensex ended the week at 74,119.39. Most sectors traded in the green, with banks, metals and energy the biggest gainers, while media, IT and healthcare ended the week in the red. Bank Nifty has outperformed this week and is poised to hit new highs.
Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said regulatory concerns over over-enthusiasm and profit-taking in the mid- and small-cap space have pushed back some NBFCs and city gas distributors in the last week. Combined with recent measures, it has dampened investor sentiment.
Domestic-focused small-cap stocks fell 2.18%, while broader mid-cap stocks rose 0.36%, but both underperformed the blue-chip index on concerns about excessive capital inflows and high valuations.
Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services, said, “The domestic market ended on a positive note despite trading in a range amid mixed signals from global markets.” Expectations for Fed rate cuts and lower bond yields encouraged rational investors to shift into stocks, supporting the market. ”
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Improving macroeconomic conditions favored bank stocks, while uncertainty in global markets led to weakness in the IT sector. Better-than-expected economic growth in the current fiscal boosted sentiment in metals and capital goods stocks, leading to gains in sectoral indexes.
According to Nile, small- and mid-cap stocks have undergone a correction, with demand for large-cap stocks increasing. The analyst expects volatility to continue next week due to high valuations and the announcement of future policy rate guidance.
Key markets will remain busy next week with several initial public offerings (IPOs) and listings scheduled across the main board and small and medium enterprise (SME) segments.
Overall, analysts expect the market to maintain its trend with rotational buying despite the volatility, but the continued rally focused on large caps will push the Nifty 50 slightly towards the 22,750-22,800 zone. I expect it to get closer and closer. Experts also advise traders to continue with a stock-specific approach.
Here are the main catalysts for the stock market this week:
Domestic macroeconomic data:
India’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based or retail inflation and January Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data will be released on March 12, followed by wholesale prices. Investors will therefore be keeping an eye on this week’s macroeconomic data. Inflation rate based on March 14 index (WPI).
7 new IPOs, 5 to be listed on D-Street:
In the main board category, Popular Vehicles & Services IPO and Krystal Integrated Services IPO will open for recruitment on March 12th and 14th. Among the ongoing stocks, Gopal Snacks IPO will close its bidding on March 11th.
In the SME sector, Pratham EPC Projects’ IPO will begin offering on March 11th. Signoria Creation IPO and Royal Sense IPO will open for bidding on March 12th. AVP Infracon’s IPO will launch on March 13th and KP Green Engineering’s IPO on March 15th.
As for the listing plans, shares of Bharat Highways InvIT and RK Swamy will be listed on stock exchanges BSE and NSE on March 12, JG Chemicals shares will be listed on March 13 and Gopal Snacks will be listed on BSE on March 14. , is scheduled to be listed on the NSE.
Further, shares of VR Infraspace will debut on NSE SME on March 12 and Sona Machinery will be listed on the same platform on March 13. On March 14, Shree Karni Fabcom shares will debut in his NSE SME and Koura Fine Diamond Jewelry shares will be acquired. Listed on BSE SME. On March 15, shares of Pune E-Stock Broking will debut on his BSE SME.
FII activities:
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have shown renewed interest in the Indian market as they turned buyers in three out of four sessions last week, with a net investment of $2,000. INR10,081,080,000.Continued capital inflows from domestic institutional investors (DII) continued, with buyers appearing in all sessions last week, with total investment INR10,129.17 billion, according to stock exchange data.
“Despite India’s strong corporate earnings and strong macroeconomic numbers, FIIs have sold about $2.4 billion of Indian stocks so far. FII “Other factors include the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s The main reason for this is that there is no expectation that the Bank will cut interest rates.”
Sectors where FIIs are cautious are financial services, telecommunications and construction. Sectors where FIIs have a bullish outlook are healthcare, consumer services, IT and automobiles. According to Nanda, a reversal in FII trends could depend on global economic conditions, sustained growth in India, policy clarity from the US Federal Reserve, robust domestic capital flows, and increased foreign investment in India. It is said that there is a possibility of attracting
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) increased their purchases and increased their purchases. INRSo far in March, Indian stocks have been valued at 11,823 billion yen. The total FPI inflows are: INR15,559 billion as of March 7, considering debt, hybrid, debt VRR, and equity.
FPI invested INRCapital inflows increase, with $3.316 billion flowing into the bond market so far this month INRIn addition to $22.419 billion in February, INRPurchased $19.836 billion in January. Experts point to the resilience of the Indian stock market and stronger-than-expected economic growth. The inclusion of government bonds in JPMorgan and Bloomberg’s bond indexes has triggered a large influx of foreign capital into the bond market.
Global queue:
The market’s focus this week will shift to the release of inflation statistics. The US will release inflation statistics on Tuesday and producer price index (PPI) data on Thursday. Other key economic data that investors will be looking at include GDP for Japan and the UK, and the UK unemployment rate. Investors will also take cues from the results of the ECB rate-setting meeting and Friday’s release of U.S. non-farm payrolls.
“The performance of global indexes will continue to provide clues as to market direction. U.S. markets have now seen profit-taking after four months of steady upward trend. , our market can also experience intermediate volatility, especially at the open,” said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Oil price:
International oil prices fell 1%, posting a weekly loss last week, even as extended supply cuts announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to support prices. The decline in crude oil imports for the first two months of 2024 from the previous month also weighed on the crude oil market.
According to Reuters, Brent crude oil futures fell 1.1% to settle at $82.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 1.2% to $78.01 per barrel. became. According to Reuters, crude oil indexes each fell 1.8% and WTI 2.5% for the week.
The OPEC cartel has extended its voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter in a bid to stabilize markets and prices amid concerns about global economic growth and rising production levels.
Corporate activities:
Next week, shares of some companies such as SBI Life Insurance, Wonder Electricals and IIFL Securities will be traded ex-dividend from March 11. Additionally, some stocks will be traded on installment and bonus payout basis. week.Check the complete list here
Technical view:
Technical indicators indicate that Nifty’s bullish momentum continues. According to Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmarts, the recent breakout from the ascending triangle pattern suggests that the immediate target for next week is 22,800 deals, with 22,500 being a psychological hurdle. It is said to function as
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Technology Research, Religare Broking Ltd, agreed. ”The market has been gradually moving higher week after week thanks to rotational buying across major sectors, but we are now seeing selective participation. ”
“Having said that, we expect the Nifty to maintain its trend and gradually move towards 22,800. On the downside, the 21,900-22,150 zone will provide a cushion for profit-taking. One should maintain a trading approach and prefer index majors and large-midcap stocks for long-term trading,” Mishra added.
Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, added that the bullish buying strategy is likely to continue as long as the price remains above $22,400. On the upside, De suggested that a decisive move above 22,500 could trigger buying interest in the market and push the index towards 22,700 in the short term.
Bank Nifty’s weekly close indicates resilient bullish momentum with pivotal support at 47,500 and resistance confirmed at 48,200. According to Rupak De, a decisive break through the 48,200 threshold confirmed on a closing price basis could prompt a bullish rally towards the 48,500 and 48,800 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerages and are not the views of Mint. We recommend checking with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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