The continued expansion of 5G networks in 2024 will improve connectivity in more ways than ever before.
For example, consider a fitness tracker that has just been loaded into a shipping container at the port of Shanghai, where it will be monitored via narrowband 5G sensors on its way across the Pacific to a U.S. warehouse, to a retail store, and ultimately to you, the consumer, whose heart rate, steps, and sleep cycles will be monitored through the tracker’s own 5G connection.
These types of narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) applications will drive much of 5G’s growth in 2024. GPS trackers, smart utility meters, agricultural sensors and remote health monitors are some of the technologies that will benefit from the expanding rollout of 5G networks, which will cover 32.5% of the world’s population in 2022. That’s up from 25.3% the previous year, according to the GSMA’s State of Mobile Internet Connectivity report.
As with the past five years, 5G will again see modest but meaningful progress by the end of 2024. But the biggest change will be that Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) will start to rethink how they monetize traffic.
#1: Increased revenue from NB-IoT connections
As the use of low-power, low-data sensors by consumers and enterprises surges, more and more NB-IoT devices will connect to 5G. While this expands the 5G ecosystem, it also puts a strain on MNOs as these devices consume network resources yet generate little revenue.
Each narrowband tracker transmits only tiny packets of data totaling just a few kilobytes, such as location pins, temperature readings, and equipment faults. This doesn’t add up to a tiny amount that can be monetized – far from enough to justify the significant investments MNOs are making in 5G rollout. Such revenue won’t be seen until big data applications like fully autonomous vehicles and last-mile drone delivery become a reality in the next few years.
But with networks still needing to support these limitless NB-IoT connections well into 2024 and beyond, operators will have to quickly rethink their business models. Instead of metering data usage, they may decide they need to charge customers based on the number of devices connected, allowing them to profit from the increased signaling and network traffic that this influx of devices brings.
But to achieve this, operators need to achieve greater visibility into what is accessing their networks. Advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) can help navigate the vast number of IoT connections and classify devices by attributes such as frequency, data usage, and quality of service. Applying AI models to examine network traffic data can provide MNOs with deeper insights into pricing strategies.
We’ve learned how important it is to track when our packages are arriving, how far we’ve traveled, what our blood sugar levels are, etc. It won’t be long before shipping companies start placing even more value on that data, too.
#2: Urban areas and big data will remain 5G priorities
A new approach to monetizing NB-IoT devices is on the horizon, but that won’t be the only 5G advancement we’ll see in 2024. Other key developments include:
— Prioritized 5G rollout in high-density urban areas. Expanding coverage to rural communities is expensive because it requires building more towers over a wider area. Carriers will focus on larger cities first, using mmWave and C-band spectrum to improve performance. Expanding into urban areas will allow them to cover more potential customers in congested metropolitan areas, helping to offset the high costs of building out these new networks.
— Increasing demand for 5G ultra-wideband due to autonomous vehicles. While self-driving cars and trucks will still be years away from widespread deployment, 5G connectivity will play a vital role in their development and testing under real-world conditions. These vehicles will require ultra-reliable connectivity, ultra-low latency, and incredibly fast data speeds while on the road, which will require MNOs to build out high-bandwidth 5G infrastructure.
— Incremental progress towards true standalone 5G. Most of the current 5G networks still rely on a 4G LTE core. Fully standalone networks are few and far between globally as of now. Building out large-scale 5G infrastructure requires significant investment, but the lagging behind of proven use cases has made MNOs hesitant to invest heavily in standalone 5G. As a result, we will continue to see a gradual rollout of standalone 5G in 2024, rather than a rapid expansion.
5G home broadband internet access is also expected to increase over the next 12 months, and the U.S. government may take further steps to free up additional spectrum. Regardless of what actually happens, though, all of the conversations will shape the ongoing 5G transformation.
#3: Progress is coming, but it won’t happen overnight
5G has grown steadily but is still in its early stages five years after MNOs began deploying it — in contrast to 3G and 4G, which were widely adopted four years after their launch.
The slow pace of 5G adoption reflects its complexity: building these networks requires significant investment. As a result, a year from now we will likely still be discussing the same trends and topics: NB-IoT expansion, urban rollouts, big data use cases, etc.
The foundations are being laid, but realistically the 5G revolution won’t be complete until the second half of the decade. But incremental progress is progress, and the industry is committed to a long-term vision, no matter how long it takes.
