Claim: Data shows that the number of immigrants who entered the United States illegally exceeds the number of births in the United States
A December 30, 2023 Facebook post (direct link, archived link) shows a line graph purportedly comparing birth rates and illegal immigration in the United States from 2019 to 2023.
The graph is said to show that the number of immigrants entering the country illegally is steadily increasing and will exceed the number of births in August or September 2023.
“Wow, more illegal immigrants enter our country than Americans (sic) give birth,” the caption reads.
X owner Elon Musk, former FOX News host Tucker Carlson and other social media users shared versions of the graph and claim. People who responded to their posts said this was proof that immigrants were taking over the country.
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Our rating: False
The graph and the data behind it do not indicate the number of immigrants who enter the United States illegally. This represents the number of documented encounters between border officials and migrants, and does not take into account the many migrants who are turned away. Experts caution that this number is not an accurate representation of the number of people entering the United States illegally.
Social media graphs based on flawed statistics
Jacques Marde, senior policy analyst for immigration and workforce policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said the comparison the post makes is fundamentally unsound.
“The comparison between births and illegal immigration is random,” Marde said. “There is no logical connection between these two variables, and it is not at all clear what to make of the fact that one is larger than the other. It is understandable that such a graph would stimulate debate. But that’s actually not the case.” It helps to compare these two variables. ”
However, a closer look at the numbers reveals that this post also gets the details wrong due to a misinterpretation of US immigration data.
The graph was first shared on X (formerly Twitter) in December 2023 by an account called Datahazard, who claimed that in August 2023, illegal immigrants outnumbered births. later the switch said It actually happened in September 2023. Neither is correct.
The graph compares births to encounters and counts the number of incidents in which immigrants were arrested or deported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The number of encounters was lower than the number of births in August 2023.
The data for September 2023 should be looked at closely. The number of births in the same month was 341,387 compared to 305,000.
But unlike the birth count, the encounter count includes people who did not stay in the United States. In September 2023, 68,210 people left or were expelled from the United States after an encounter, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security. This alone would cause the number of illegal immigrants to fall below the number of births.
“The bottom line is that the number of new illegal immigrants settling in this country is unprecedented, but it does not exceed the number of births,” said Stephen Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies.
But experts say there are other problems with conflating encounters with illegal immigration.
Malde said not all of the encounters and incidents identified involved people attempting to enter the country illegally.
“The term “illegal immigration” can be very misleading, as some people who are classified as encounters who have not been expelled from the country or returned to their place of origin may be legally , but a final decision may not have been made yet,” Marde said. “These people are not illegal immigrants.”
Additionally, a person may have multiple encounters, which DHS refers to as “repeated encounters.”
There are no publicly available national statistics on repeat encounters. However, Customs and Border Protection has recorded a number of repeated encounters at the southwest border. For example, the Border Agency reported 232,972 encounters in August 2023. However, the Border Agency said that month there were only 164,911 unique encounters along the southwest border. This refers to people you have only encountered once in the past 12 months.
Adriel Orozco, senior policy advisor for the American Immigration Council, told USA TODAY that Title 42, the public health order that prohibits Border Patrol officials from detaining migrants at stops where COVID-19 could spread, He said repeated encounters occurred more frequently. The order, which lasted from March 2020 to May 2023, allowed expedited expulsion of immigrants, but allowed immigrants expelled to Mexico to return to the United States much sooner without certain penalties.
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Experts also point out that the concept of comparing official illegal immigration data with other numbers is misleading, as it is impossible to count the number of people who enter the country undetected.
“While DHS employs many specific indicators to track border enforcement operations, illegal border crossers actively attempt to evade detection, and some flows go undetected. Flows are difficult to quantify accurately,” the DHS fact sheet states.
USA TODAY reached out to the Facebook user who shared the post for comment, but did not immediately receive a response. Datahazard did not respond to requests for comment.
PolitiFact also debunked this claim.
Our fact-checking sources:
- Adriel Orozco, January 25, email interview with USA TODAY
- Jacques Malde, February 8, email interview with USA TODAY
- Steven Camarota, February 8, email interview with USA TODAY
- DHS, accessed January 25, Reporting Terms and Definitions
- DHS, accessed January 25, Measuring Effectiveness
- DHS, accessed January 29, Monthly Table of Immigration Enforcement and Legal Proceedings
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Nationwide Encounters Accessed January 25
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection, September 9, 2023, CBP releases monthly update for August 2023
- CDC, accessed January 26, preliminary state and national counts.
- Pew Research Center, Jan. 13 Monthly encounters with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border remain near record highs.
- Migration Policy Institute, March 31, 2022 Controversial U.S. Title 42 deportation policy comes to an end, bringing new challenges at the border
- Associated Press, May 12, 2023 Title 42 has ended.Here’s what this has led to and how US immigration policy is changing
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