The credibility of Pakistan’s elections has already been undermined by internet blackouts and delays in vote counting amid anxious waits for results.

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aAs of Friday morning, we still do not know the results of Pakistan’s controversial general election. It’s an unusually long delay in a country where preliminary signs of who has won usually emerge within hours of polling stations closing.

After the first few results were announced, it was a close race between the pre-election favorite, Nawaz Sharif’s PML-(N) party, and an independent group backed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, with Bilawal Bhutto’s -Zardari’s PPP party followed suit. Thirdly.

But whoever ultimately wins the election, the way it was conducted warrants criticism over the legitimacy of the result, and the power still held by the country’s military, which seeks to thwart the democratic process. It serves as a dark reminder.

Election Day itself was bloody, with unprecedented mass power outages to mobile phone and internet services, reports of long lines and mismanagement at election booths, and deadly terrorist attacks on political offices and polling stations. It was severely undermined by violence and delays in vote counting. It lasted well over 14 hours.

Even before the election, international observers, including the United Nations, had expressed serious concerns about the treatment of Mr. Khan and his popular opposition party, the PTI, with the former prime minister jailed on a series of charges they said were politically motivated. , thousands of party officials have been imprisoned. facing police action. In a decisive but significant blow, the party was banned from using its cricket bat election symbol on ballot papers, meaning its candidates had to run as independents. That means it didn’t happen.

Analysts said all this surprisingly didn’t seem to dampen voter enthusiasm, with anecdotes of high turnout across the country. Official voter numbers have not yet been released.

Officials said the suspension of internet and phone services across Pakistan was necessary given the threat of riots and terrorist attacks, but a list of independent candidates chosen by Mr Khan is mainly available online. Given that, it is highly likely that Mr. Khan’s PTI had a disproportionate influence. The lack of mobile internet also severely limited journalists’ ability to cover the election live and the ability of political parties to coordinate their monitoring efforts.

“The mobile service outage was a huge blow to the credibility of the election,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute. Independent.

“This is theoretically illegal, as several high courts have ruled it illegal, and it does not allow voters to have detailed information about where they are voting and what the electoral symbol of their chosen party looks like. It will be particularly difficult to obtain.”

Given that the country’s caretaker prime minister was asked on the eve of the election whether an internet outage would take place, there can be little argument that the internet outage was an emergency or unexpected measure. Off camera, he and his aides told Sky News hours before cutting off internet access on election day that “there was no intention”.

“The election was never fair or reliable,” says columnist Mea Tarar. independent person. “The situation here is bleak and the internet outage is unprecedented as it did not happen during the 2013 elections when terrorism was at its peak.”

Taller said that despite the apparently high turnout, he was still hopeful that “there wouldn’t really be much rigging in that case.”

Elections in Pakistan often result in flashpoints of violence against citizens and party officials. And this election is no exception, with about 40 people killed between Wednesday and Thursday, including two bombings in Balochistan that killed about 30 people, as well as consecutive attacks at polling stations on election day. Nine people were killed in the bombing and gunfire.

Kugelman argues that the most important developments occurred not on Election Day, but in the weeks leading up to the election, during efforts to establish an uneven electoral playing field.

“Whoever wins the elections, in fact it will be Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, but just because the PTI has a significant level of support does not necessarily mean it is a popular mandate. I don’t think it could be seen as reflective of the party, but it was supported nonetheless.” It was only because the party was sidelined and weakened that it ran a credible campaign. I couldn’t do it,” he said.

But “most importantly, it is a victory for the military, because it is widely believed that this is the party the military would prefer to lead the next government, and that is natural.” he says.

Mr Sharif’s victory marks a remarkable reversal since he was sacked in 2017 over disagreements with the military, paving the way for Mr Khan, who is believed to have had military support, to win an election a year later. Become.

But then their fortunes take a turn, and now it is Khan who is locked up in prison after a bitter breakup with the army.

Analysts say it is unlikely that any single party will secure an absolute majority and that the next government will need to form a coalition led by the party with the most seats.

If successful, it would be Pakistan’s third democratic transition between civilian governments.

The military appears to be backing Mr. Sharif on the basis that he is himself a three-time former prime minister and is perhaps the only candidate with the experience and notoriety to challenge Mr. Khan’s grassroots popularity. .

“But that will backfire because they are not natural friends. Sharif and the military have sparred many times in the past and even if Sharif were to come back as a minister again, he would suddenly become more I don’t think you’re going to do whatever the military wants out of respect,” Kugelman said.

“Imran Khan is popular,” said Kamal Cheema, a Pakistani political analyst. “The people support him and want to vote for him. But at the same time, Nawaz Sharif is also very popular. Maryam Nawaz is very active in the field.”

Mr Sharif, who cast his vote hours before polls closed on Thursday, seemed confident of not only winning the election but of winning an outright majority. “Please, please don’t mention the coalition government,” he said after voting in Lahore’s upscale Model Town area.

He even suggested that he was already considering which positions to give to family members, including his brother and another former prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif.

“Once this election is over, we will sit down and decide who will be the PM (Prime Minister) and who will be the CM (Chief Minister),” Sharif said in Punjab state, adding that the position is a key to becoming prime minister. It is seen as a stepping stone. .

Given the military’s presumed loyalty to Sharif, analysts say it will require a large and unquestionable public mandate for Mr. Khan to prevent the PML-(N) from returning to power. Stated.

Columnist Abbas Nasir said: “The decisive factor is which side the powerful military and its security services will take.” “Only a huge vote in favor of (Mr Khan’s) PTI can change its fate.

“The economic challenges are so deep and profound, and the solutions so painful, that I don’t see how anyone in power will steady the ship. .”

Since being removed from office in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, Khan has faced more than 170 lawsuits and numerous convictions, with sentences of up to 14 years in prison.

But experts say even if he loses this election, Mr. Khan is not necessarily done yet.

“Pakistani politics is full of stories of great reversals. There are many politicians who risked the lives of nine people, and there were many second and third chances,” Kugelman said.

“I don’t think just because Khan is in prison now doesn’t mean he’s done. His desire and ability to reconcile with the military, and recent messages from prison, indicate that he’s not willing to reconcile. That suggests not at all, but things may change.”

“He may still have many years of productive politics,” Kugelman added.