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ATHENS, Ga. — Kirby Smart made it sound like the situation was dire. On paper, Smart coaches the most talented college football team in America. But when he surveyed the roster this month, deep within the names, a concern was confirmed: Fewer people are playing football, and that’s affecting the quality of the game.
“I feel like our depth is thinner than it’s ever been, and that’s something I hear a lot when I talk to other coaches,” Smart said. “I call it football degradation.”
A Georgia high school coach echoed similar sentiments.
“The number of kids playing football is definitely declining,” says Adam Carter, head coach at Lowndes High School in Valdosta. “I think there are a few reasons for that. Football is hard work, it’s played in the summer, and a lot of parents today don’t get their kids to play football at an early age, so they end up only playing baseball, basketball, soccer, etc., and never stepping on a football field when they’re older.”
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So are they right? Football is more popular than it’s ever been, and more profitable than it’s ever been, yet fewer people are playing it? Is this a big warning sign for the future of the sport?
The data tells a mixed story (several other high school coaches contacted also said they are having record numbers of players).
“We’re encouraged by the numbers that are out there and the number of people that are playing,” National Football Foundation president Steve Hatchell said.
Kirby Smart is in his ninth season as Georgia’s coach. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Either way, sport officials acknowledge the concerns and say they will continue to take steps to make the sport safer.
“There’s a growing recognition that for the benefit of the players and to keep the game alive, we need to change how players behave,” said Steve Shaw, the NCAA’s officiating coordinator and chair of the football rules committee. “I can tell you that this couldn’t be more important.”
First, let’s look at the data.
• High school football participation trended downward from 2015 to 2022, but has increased slightly in each of the past two years. According to data compiled by the National Federation of High School Associations, 1,031,508 people will play 11-man football during the 2023 season, up about 3,000 from the previous season.
• Negative: This figure is still down from the 1,136,301 recorded in 2009, and when population growth is taken into account, it represents a lower percentage of the available talent pool.
• At the same time, the number of colleges sponsoring football teams continues to grow: 774 this season, according to the National Football Foundation, with six new schools added this fall and 51 new schools since 2008. And the number of FBS (formerly Division IA) schools has grown from 112 in 1998 to 134 this year as more schools seek to make money from the game.
So while the number of college teams is growing, the amount of talent remains the same. The obvious conclusion is that Smart and his fellow coaches may be right, as the supply of talent is not keeping up with the demand.
Another factor Carter pointed to is that kids don’t play football, or at least tackle football, until middle school or high school. Smart pointed out that safety rules at the high school level dictate the number of practices per week and the number of tackles and physical contact.
“In high school, you don’t get as much opportunity to develop kids because of the rigors of the practices and the practice schedule,” Smart said, “so that has a ripple effect and you end up with players at the high school level.”
Smart, it’s worth pointing out, doesn’t necessarily have a problem with that — he’s often spoken about wanting football to be safe for his 12-year-old son, who plays it — and he sits on the NCAA rules committee and has been involved in crafting rules to make the game safer.
The NCAA’s most visible change is the targeting rule, which was implemented as a 15-yard penalty in 2013 and became an automatic ejection a year later. Fans, coaches and players have denigrated the rule, but because it’s effective, the rule won’t be repealed.
“I know fans often dislike targets, but I can honestly say it’s one of the best rules we’ve ever put in place,” Shaw said.
The rule is meant to change behavior away from headhunting and risky hits, and Shaw pointed to data and anecdotal evidence that it’s working: The number of targeting calls has trended downward for the past four years, to 0.16 per game last season. And it’s not because umpires are turning a blind eye, it’s because players have adjusted their play because of the rule.
“It’s been really good for our game,” Shaw said. “You’ve seen a change in what guys do, their technique, the way they block, the way they tackle, their approach, how they use their helmets.”
Besides targets, the rules committee has continually considered changes for safety reasons, changing the rules on blocking below the waist to reduce knee injuries and eliminating the blindside block.
The committee refers to the number of plays per game as “exposure.” There was pressure to reduce the number of plays primarily for safety reasons, but more notably for shortening game time. The committee removed an average of 4.5 to 5 plays from a game through changes, particularly not stopping the clock on first downs. Fans complained about the shortened game time, but this has remained unchanged since the objective of reducing exposure was achieved.
“The progress there is really good for our game and probably saves our game,” Shaw said.
There’s also been a focus on equipment, specifically helmet technology. Shaw predicts that in a few years, position-specific helmets will emerge based on data collected now on how each position is exposed to impacts to the head. For example, safeties will need a different helmet than linemen because they don’t take the same repeated hits as linemen, but safeties will need a helmet to protect them from hits while running.
Of course, all of this comes on the heels of years of bad press about the game’s safety, and while that has had a visible impact on participation, data suggests that participation rates may be reversing, and not just at the high school level.
The Sports & Fitness Industry Association, which tracks youth participation at all levels, provided the following data:
• Participation rates among 13-17 year olds in tackle football decreased from 2012 to 2017, but increased over the following six years.
• Participation rates among 6-12 year olds in tackle football have remained “stable to slightly increased” over the past 12 years.
• Tackle football participation has declined since 2010, but “the decline has stopped in recent years and participation has stabilized,” with participation increasing every year since 2020.
“This body of data conclusively demonstrates that the argument that participation rates in tackle football have dropped dramatically and are on a consistent downward trend is simply not true,” SFIA’s Tom Cobb wrote in the report, “and in fact, after some challenges with concussion issues from 2011-2017, participation rates in tackle football have remained remarkably stable and generally good.”
Hatchell noted that flag football is a growing sport: It will be an Olympic sport in 2028, and the number of high school girls playing the sport more than doubled last year to just under 43,000.
“It’s exploding. It’s not just growing, it’s exploding,” Hatchell said.
Hatchell said he and other football advocates don’t see flag football as a long-term replacement for tackle football, but rather as something that works in tandem with it. There’s agreement across tackle football to continue making the game safer so parents want to send their kids to play. The game’s popularity, at least in terms of TV ratings and attendance, makes it worth the risk of making these changes and sacrificing parts of the game if it means fewer injuries.
That won’t change, and the game won’t go back to how it was before.
“As a parent of a kid who played, I encourage my kids to play tough and play strong, but I also want them to play safe,” Hatchell said. “That’s the most important thing, and I think the rule change has been really good in that regard.”
(Top photo: Andrew Nelles/USA Today)
