Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has been one of the best pass rushers since entering the NFL. Despite starting only nine games during his rookie season in 2017, Garrett has recorded at least 10 sacks every season. Over his career, he has been selected to the Pro Bowl five times, made the All-Pro team three times and was named Defensive Player of the Year last year.
Despite all the accolades and four straight seasons with 12 or more sacks, the only thing Garrett hasn’t accomplished as a pass rusher is leading the league in sacks. In three of the past four seasons, that title has gone to AFC North leader TJ Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The one season Watt didn’t win the crown, it was San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa.
According to NFL.com data analyst Cynthia Frelund, 2024 is the year Garrett finally makes it to the top. Frelund used a statistical model to simulate the season more than 100,000 times to come up with projected leaders in various categories and then created a top five in each category.
When it comes to the 2024 sack leaders, the numbers are surprisingly close, but the Browns’ star pass rusher has finally come out on top. According to Frelland’s model, Garrett leads the league with 12 sacks this season, and a big part of that is his incredible ability to beat double and triple teams. “According to computer vision, he was second in the league in double and triple team win rate last season, behind only Aaron Donald,” Frelland noted.
Following Garrett, Frelund’s model has the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby, Cowboys’ Micah Parsons and Watt tied for second with 11 sacks each, and Bosa rounding out the top five with 10. Frelund adds the caveat that “sack projections are always going to look low because they’re calculated as decimals per game and then added up,” and he says we should pay more attention to the rankings and order rather than focusing on the actual numbers.
If Garrett finishes the 2024 season with 11.5 or more sacks, he will surpass the 100-sack mark in his eighth season in the league. That would put Garrett in the top 50 on the official sack leaders list. Garrett is currently ninth in sacks among active players. Cleveland will need another big season from Garrett to have a shot at winning an improved AFC North division.
