Dell’ Oro predicts that approximately 75% of 5G subscribers will be connected to a 5G SA network by 2028.
The global mobile core network (MCN) market growth rate will decline at a CAGR of less than 1% over the period 2023-2028, according to a new forecast report by Dell’Oro Group.
The report points out that the growth of this market will be driven by the multi-access edge computing (MEC) market segment and the 5G MCN market segment.
“This is the fourth consecutive time we have reduced MCN market growth as 5G standalone (5G SA) network builds continue to decline relative to 5G non-standalone (5G NSA) networks,” said Dave Bolan. says Mr. Director of Derollo Group. “The construction of 5G SA networks has been slower than expected, which is restraining market growth. To date, 50 5G SA eMBB networks have been commercially deployed worldwide by mobile network operators (MNOs). Yes, we counted 18 new 5G SA networks in 2022, but only 12 launched in 2023. On the positive side, in preparation for the launch of 5G SA by mobile operators. We think there’s been a lot of work going on in the background, and we expect that network to launch in 2024. There will be more launches than there were in 2022.”
The report highlighted that the MEC market segment will lead the growth rate of the MCN market with an expected CAGR of 26% from 2023 to 2028, followed by the 5G MCN market segment at a CAGR of 7%.
“In 2028, we predict that approximately 75% of 5G subscribers will be connected to a 5G SA network. Additionally, approximately 60% of 4G subscribers are expected to use a converged 5G core in a 5G SA network. The market expects the introduction of IoT devices with new reduced-feature radios (RedCap NR) to drive growth in the MEC market, bringing more 5G IoT devices to market at lower prices. 5G Advanced has been recently approved and we expect the impact on the 5G MCN market segment to be minimal, with the exception of China during the forecast period,” Bolan added.
Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm described a “challenging mobile network market characterized by persistent headwinds” during a conference call to present fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financials. . He called the slowdown in spending in North America “unprecedented.” Ekholm also acknowledged that sales in India are surging as Indian carriers rapidly deploy 5G, but operations will be discontinued as “the pace of investment normalizes.” He said it would be.
Ericsson executives said that historically, significant declines in the mobile market are followed by recoveries. It’s difficult to predict the timing, but “I think it will happen again this time.”
Ekholm also said operators must contend with stagnant returns on capital. “I think there are two things we can do to change this: we can either passively wait for the market to improve or regulations change, or we can address the problem by changing the way we consume and monetize the network. You can either try to deal with it head on. I chose the latter path.”
