Isle of Wight is now Virginia’s sixth fastest growing county, Weldon Cooper data shows – Smithfield Times

Isle of Wight County has been one of Virginia’s top 10 fastest growing areas for the second year in a row.

Population estimates for the state’s 133 cities and counties released on January 30 by the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia show that 40,873 people will live on the Isle of Wight as of mid-2023. This is a nearly 6% increase from the 38,606 people counted in the 2020 Census, making the Isle of Wight the sixth fastest growing county and eighth fastest growing region, including cities.

Last year’s census update placed the Isle of Wight seventh among counties and ninth among counties and cities.

The Census Bureau has not yet released updated information for this year, but last year it estimated the Isle of Wight’s population at 40,151 people based on mid-2022 data. In contrast, Weldon Cooper’s data for the previous year showed 39,950 cases.

“The numbers tend to be different,” acknowledged Weldon Cooper demographer Hamilton Lombardo.

Weldon Cooper’s methodology differs from the census in that it counts college students as local residents, rather than the city or county where the school is located. Lombard said the state-specific data available in the census is also limited because a uniform standard is needed to measure the population of all 50 states.

Another factor that Weldon Cooper and the Census look at is each region’s birth rate and net migration (number of people moving in minus number of people moving out). Data from Weldon Cooper shows that while the Isle of Wight has had 180 more deaths than births since the 2020 census, there have been 2,447 more people moving into the county than moving out.

Weldon Cooper data shows 2023 was the second year in a row that the Isle of Wight’s population grew by more than 2% per year. The Isle of Wight previously recorded four consecutive years of 2% annual growth between 2004 and 2007, when the housing market was booming, but by 2008, high-risk or ‘subprime’ mortgages were experiencing foreclosures. It collapsed, sparking a national economic crisis now known as “subprime” mortgage lending. Great recession.

In 2005, when now established developments such as Eagle Harbor and Founders Point in Carrollton were being built, Weldon Cooper identified 524 new homes permitted that year on the Isle of Wight. In 2022, the most recent year for which Weldon Cooper has local permit data, there were 514.

“If you look at the construction data for the Isle of Wight, it looks like there are very similar trends,” Lombard said.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.6% this month, up from about 3.8% two years ago, according to Freddie Mac, a government-run company that funds the U.S. housing market by purchasing mortgages. ing. But that doesn’t seem to be dampening buyer demand.

“There wasn’t a huge drop off,” Lombard said.

Lombard said one factor that was different from what drove the housing boom in the early 2000s was the rise of remote work at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the continued availability of flexible work arrangements using internet-based videoconferencing platforms like Zoom, workers may no longer have to worry about commuting distance to rural areas.

“I think that’s why we’re seeing so much growth on the Isle of Wight,” Mr Lombard said.

result

Virginia uses Weldon Cooper’s annual population estimates and separate school-age population estimates to prorate each city and county’s share of state revenue. Among these state formulas is a “composite index” that states use when allocating funds to the public school sector. According to the Virginia Department of Education, the formula measures a school division’s “ability to pay” the cost of meeting state-mandated minimum staffing levels based on enrollment, adjusted gross revenue and tax revenue. The purpose is to

“Essentially, you’re looking at the ratio of resources to population,” Lombard said.

Lombard explained that local governments are eligible to receive more funding if enrollment is increasing but the local government’s tax base is not keeping up.

A separate study, unrelated to state revenue allocation, released by Weldon Cooper in mid-January, predicted that enrollment in Isle of Wight County Schools would increase by just 2% through 2029. , building permits and pending rezoning applications were not considered.

In 2023, there will be seven rezoning applications for new and expanded housing developments on the Isle of Wight, totaling more than 1,900 homes to be added to the northern end of the county. A further 2,200 new homes in the north end are linked to eight developments approved by 2023.