Dallas Cowboys roster: Not much to expect from the 2023 draft class, according to data

The Dallas Cowboys are business as usual when it comes to free agent spending, and things have been quiet on the Texas front. With such a large downside between additions and departures, the Cowboys will soon turn to their most valuable roster-building tool to save them: the NFL Draft.

Typically, this isn’t much of a concern as teams have proven over the years that they can adequately replenish their rosters with quality drafts. However, this year is a little different. First of all, they traded fourth- and fifth-round picks this year, so they don’t have much draft capital. Not only that, but the team is coming off its worst draft in a while. Of the eight players they selected last season, Madge Smith was the only one who started, and he started just three games. That’s awful.

The Cowboys are hoping this new draft class can help improve the roster, but they’re also hoping last year’s players can take a big step forward and fill the newly discovered holes. Is that rational or just wishful thinking? To better answer this question, let’s look at draft picks from the last decade and see how many others got off to a slow start and… I wanted to see if there was any reason to be hopeful about the 2023 draft class.

In this exercise, we will compare the scores of the Pro Football Reference’s approximate values. Our goal here is to take a look at the players who contributed significantly to the Cowboys and see how many of them got off to a slow start. Let’s start with the draft picks turned All-Pro/Pro Bowl players of the past decade.

What stands out on this list is how most of these players are committed. The top 10 AV scores above are all players who earned All-Pro honors. Four of those players earned All-Pro honors in their rookie seasons, even though only one other player (Calvin Hill, 1969) accomplished that feat in the Cowboys’ 54 years of existence. Obtained. In other words, greatness has no time to waste. The only All-Pro on that list who didn’t earn an AV of 4 or higher in his rookie season was DeMarcus Lawrence, who missed more than half of the season due to injury.

Of course, you don’t have to be a star to be a good draft pick. Let’s take a look at the players who have turned into quality starters/key role players over the past decade.

What can we take away from this list? Like the star players, many of these players had good rookie seasons, even though their AV scores were much lower. Nine players had his AV score of 1 or less. These are the players we are interested in, as almost the entire 2023 draft class falls into this group. We know the other players turned out to be solid players, but what could be the reason behind their slow start?

When we break things down, we can categorize them into four categories.

• 2 injured (Randy Gregory and Connor McGovern)
• Three players start as special teamers (Damien Wilson, Donovan Wilson, Noah Brown)
• Two players were released in the final roster cuts (Terrance Mitchell and Michael Jackson).
• Two were embedded on the depth chart and were primarily used for inline blocking (Geoff Swaim and Dalton Schultz)

These are the expected situations for the 2023 draft class. Injured players didn’t have much of a chance to show their worth. With so much depth at each position, there’s still potential for players who haven’t played much or have played primarily on special teams. As for the two corners who didn’t make the final roster cuts, it could be argued that the Cowboys gave up on them too soon, but to be fair, they developed into good players with their new teams. It wasn’t until the second half. road.

Now that we’ve looked at the best players in the past 10 drafts, let’s remind our viewers what the 2023 draft class looks like.

This list is hard to read. As mentioned before, Maji Smith is the only starter, which explains why he is the approximate leader with his AV score of 2, which is astounding. Smith’s low scores were not due to injury. He appeared in all 17 games. And it wasn’t because there were so many good players before him that he couldn’t get on the field enough. The only nose tackle that gave him competition was Jonathan Hankins, who narrowly edged him 351-304. Nothing is set in stone, but this doesn’t make me too optimistic about what kind of player he will be in the future.

It feels like a disappointing season for Luke Schoonmaker, and his AV scores back it up, but if he’s not the top pass-catching TE target on the team, that’s going to shake up the stats. . Players before him like Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson posted similarly low scores in their rookie seasons before emerging as the Cowboys’ starting tight ends. It would be unfair to call him anything other than TBD.

Both the Cowboys’ third-round pick and fourth-round pick sat out a single game last year. I don’t know how good Demarvion Overshawn or Junior Fehoko are. What we can say is that Overshawn had some good plays in the preseason before getting injured, so there’s reason to be optimistic about him. Fehoko also suffered a knee injury, but it was not serious. It felt like the team could have brought him back if they thought he was ready to contribute, but they didn’t. His statement raises further questions.

It’s even worse for others. Asim Richards played a little bit, but not enough to beat Chuma Edoga at the swing tackle position when Tyron Smith missed four games last year. That’s a little worrying considering Edga wasn’t very good.

Speaking of concerns, the player the Cowboys drafted, Eric Scott Jr., never saw the field last year. With Trevon Diggs sidelined for most of the year, he had a chance. Nashon Wright also saw some snaps on defense, as did Noah Igbinoghene, and even CJ Goodwin saw some snaps. But the newcomer had nothing. Apparently he wasn’t ready yet. That’s not to say his career is over, but he didn’t get off to a great start.

Deuce Vaughn and Jalen Brooks are lost in the depth chart. It’s unclear where their careers are heading. Bourne didn’t do much in his limited opportunities, but Brooks showed some promise.

While there is still hope, this slow start is worrying. Unless one or two players buck the trend of these former rookie AV scorers, this data could be an early clue that not much to expect from this draft class. In fact, the 2023 draft class looks a lot like the team’s more notable debacles from the past decade.