According to a research paper from analysts IDTechEx, Antenna-in-Package (AiP) technology continues to evolve as frequencies increase, but supply chain maturity and manufacturing scalability are two key areas that should not be overlooked.
of 5G and 6G AiP 2024-2034: Technologies, Trends and Markets The study warns that both factors are often bottlenecks to the adoption of new technologies, given their correlation with the cost of the final product.
This means that design choices regarding antenna element type, substrate technology, materials and passive device integration will be crucial in the further evolution of 5G networks and future 6G infrastructure.
Specifically, the report suggests that integration of antennas and radio frequency components directly into semiconductor packages, tailored for mmWave applications and potentially extending into the sub-THz spectrum for 6G, will result in a significantly smaller footprint and better performance.The AiP market is also directly linked to the 5G mmWave and future 6G markets, with AiP expected to be found in all 5G mmWave-based stations and 5G-enabled electronic devices such as smartphones.
5G technology is gradually being commercialized around the world, but the analysis highlights that the main focus remains on mid-band (sub-6GHz) deployments. IDTechEx reports that currently less than 10% of commercial or pre-commercial 5G services are based on mmWave frequency bands. This is due in part to the challenges facing mmWave deployment, the company said, because high-frequency signals are easily attenuated in the air and, according to the laws of physics, are highly susceptible to obstacles.
In their report, IDTechEx highlighted that cost-efficiency is a fundamental requirement for AiP technology. Achieving affordability requires significant miniaturization efforts leveraging cost-effective packaging materials and processes to seamlessly integrate into consumer devices such as smartphones. They also noted that other prerequisites require producing high-gain broadband mmWave antenna arrays while simultaneously addressing electromagnetic compatibility, signal integrity and power integrity issues.
The integration of quality factor passives into the package is said to maintain reliability through efficient heat dissipation and ensure optimal performance, while scalability allows the module design to be adapted to suit the needs of a wide range of applications.
Analysts believe that operators can prioritize building cost-effective networks by maximizing coverage with a minimum number of base stations, but due to mmWave’s shorter propagation distance, they will need roughly 10 times as many mmWave stations compared to 4G low-mid band stations to cover the same area. As a result, nationwide 5G coverage will rely primarily on low/mid band and sub-6 GHz bands. IDTechEx expects that mmWave bands will primarily serve data-intensive hotspots such as crowded stadiums, supporting critical applications such as real-time streaming and high-definition video uploads.
Looking at the current market landscape, the report suggests that identifying the killer application where mmWave technology can truly demonstrate its value is currently the biggest challenge for the industry. According to the report, while the concept of integrating 5G mmWave with virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) for real-time remote gaming and working was initially promising, the market and ecosystem for VR and AR devices is not yet mature enough for 5G mmWave to capitalize on.
IDTechEx expects that the discovery of compelling and economically beneficial business use cases will be key to driving mmWave market growth. These cases will need to prove that the benefits of 5G mmWave can justify the significant investments required for deployment, they stress. IDTechEx predicts that it will probably be another 3-5 years before such cases grow significantly.
However, with continued innovation and exploration, the industry expects that mmWave technology will soon be widely adopted and offer highly profitable opportunities. Going forward, 6G will face greater challenges than 5G mmWave in terms of both technology development and market penetration due to its higher frequency.
Overcoming these obstacles will require the development of innovative technology services, such as advances in antenna packaging techniques to minimize signal transmission issues.
Furthermore, to drive adoption of 6G technology, enhanced market identification of future applications is crucial, which not only requires identifying killer applications but also fostering the ecosystem required for their successful implementation.
