DENVER — Colorado’s property and violent crime rates fell in 2023 after people expected them to rise.
Their perceptions reflect national trends. People across the country said they felt crime was increasing when in fact it was decreasing.
“People rely on anecdotes,” says crime analyst Jeff Asher, who has studied this gap between perception and reality. “And it’s very difficult to figure out whether people have heard more anecdotes about crime this year than they did in the first six months of last year.”
Asher wrote about the phenomenon in his Substack newsletter last month after a Gallup poll found that 63% of Americans say the nation’s crime problem is very or extremely serious. Ta. The majority believe the crime rate in the area is higher than the previous year, he said. During the same period in 2023, crime rates across the country actually decreased.
In Colorado, a poll last fall by the Colorado Public Opinion Research Association found that crime and public safety were Coloradans’ second-biggest concerns after the cost of living. The poll found that older Coloradans are more concerned about the issue, while younger voters are less so.
Usher said the media plays a big role in a common problem that causes a disconnect between perception and actual data, referring to the old expression that the media doesn’t report on planes landing.
“In reality, the only time you read about crime is when it actually happens,” he says. “I don’t think people talk about how there were no car thefts yesterday or murders yesterday.”
Social media also poses a problem. Usher noted that apps like Nextdoor often don’t provide the necessary information that the thousands of packages delivered to doorsteps haven’t been stolen, while Porch Pirates A video of the act is circulating.
“If you’re only getting information about incidents as they happen, and you don’t have the data in front of you or easily accessible data, it’s important to be able to contextualize all those incidents in a more consistent context. “It becomes very difficult to tell the story,” he said.
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