CNN
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A small figure approaches in the air, making a loud noise. The noise is eerily reminiscent of Russia’s drone attacks on Ukraine, although this episode was recorded closer to Moscow than Kiev.
In a video shared on social media and seen by CNN, a woman can be heard saying in Russian: “They’re flying at us.” As the object approaches, it becomes clear that it is a Ukrainian drone flying over Russian territory. “I’m so scared,” she murmured.
Another video recorded shortly after shows the same drone veering to the left as a loud air raid siren blares, drowning out the noise of the propellers. Seconds later, the drone plummeted from the sky and crashed into a pipe-covered tower at a Russian oil refinery, exploding on impact.
CNN located the video at Rosneft’s Ryazan oil refinery, Russia’s largest, more than 500 kilometers from Ukraine. The March 13 attack was one of several on this facility alone and was part of a joint Ukrainian operation to target Russian refineries with long-range drones.
These bold Ukrainian attacks are a blow to Russia’s huge oil and gas industry, which remains the biggest source of revenue for Russia’s war economy despite Western import bans and price restrictions. .
Sources close to Ukraine’s drone program said the attacks were made possible by the use of longer-range and more sophisticated drones, some of which were designed to avoid navigation and jamming. According to CNN, basic artificial intelligence integration has also begun.
“The use of artificial intelligence allows precision against jamming. Each aircraft is equipped with a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data,” the source explained. “Flights are pre-determined with allies, and the aircraft follows a flight plan, allowing us to hit targets with an accuracy of a few meters.”
This precision is made possible by the drone’s sensors.
“They have something called ‘machine vision,’ which is a type of AI. They basically take a model, store it on a chip, and use this to determine the geography and the targets it’s going to.” train the model,” said Noah Sylvia, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank. “When it’s finally deployed, we’ll be able to identify where it is.”
“It doesn’t require any communication[with the satellite]and is completely autonomous,” Sylvia added.
Video obtained by Reuters
Smoke billows after Ukrainian drones attack an oil refinery in Ryazan, Russia’s Ryazan region. This screen was taken from a video obtained by Reuters on March 13, 2024.
Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and expert on drone warfare and artificial intelligence, said the level of “intelligence” remained very low.
“This level of autonomy has never been seen in a drone before, and we are still in the early stages of this technology’s potential,” he told CNN.
CNN contacted Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), but both declined to comment on the use of AI technology.
The use of drones in Ukraine is not new. The country has relied heavily on them since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 22, 2022, building up resources in technological advancement and domestic manufacturing.
Initially, Kiev mainly used off-the-shelf equipment that had been cleverly modified on the ground for surveillance or to drop small bombs. But Russia has since built a full-fledged drone industry, giving it a technological edge over Russia’s significantly larger workforce and better equipped industrial equipment.
This also explains Kiev’s increased precision in attacks on refineries, with the Ukrainian military focused on targeting specific areas to maximize the impact of attacks.
Terminal autonomy
These Ukrainian drones now have a rudimentary form of artificial intelligence, according to people close to the country’s drone program.
Experts contacted by CNN said, for example, that Ukraine is not attacking fuel storage facilities, but distillation units that process crude oil into fuels and other derivatives.
“From what we’ve seen so far, they’re attacking targets that require a lot of Western technology, and Russia is having a much harder time procuring this technology.” said Sylvia.
This approach would do more harm to Kyiv and provide more benefits than simply attacking a refinery at random. And the market is noticing it.
“This is a change in Ukrainian tactics to drain Russia’s war machine,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of product strategy at investment bank RBC Capital Markets, said in an interview. We are actually looking at it.”
Experts believe such an attack could have a bigger impact on Russia’s economy than current sanctions.
“If you look at the sanctions that have been introduced so far, they have largely avoided energy,” Croft explained. “In fact, it was energy exports, crude oil, natural gas, and refined products that gave Russia the economic lifeline to continue fighting this war.”
Ukraine says 12% of Russia’s refining capacity is now offline, but Reuters estimates put the figure at up to 14%. Russia has admitted that some of its refining capacity has been reduced and temporarily banned gasoline exports to avoid rising domestic fuel prices.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this month that the attacks “proved to many that there are vulnerabilities in the Russian war machine that can be reached with our weapons.”
“What our own drones can do is Ukraine’s true long-range capability. From now on, Ukraine will always have strike forces in the skies.”
Ukraine refinery strike raises global oil prices, Brent crude also rises This year, it’s nearly 13%, and U.S. politicians are concerned about the potential impact on the economy in a crucial election year.
Without mentioning energy prices, Washington officials said they were actively preventing Ukraine from attacking these refineries. “We have said for years that we would not encourage or enable attacks on Russian soil,” one official told CNN.
Croft said the U.S. and international sanctions imposed since the start of the war were structured to keep Russian energy on the market.
“That was the deal with Ukraine: We’ll give you money, we’ll give you weapons, but you stay away from export facilities and Russian energy, because we don’t want a major energy crisis,” Croft said. explained.
Vasco Cotovio/CNN
An operator flies a military drone in a government-sponsored competition. Kiev has successfully built a full-fledged drone industry from scratch by funding local developers and startups.
But the impasse in Washington over funding to Ukraine and the possibility of a change in the White House next year could give Kiev some leeway.
“If they don’t get the arms and money they were promised, what incentive do they have to abide by their agreements with Washington?” Croft said.
The bigger concern, experts say, is that Ukraine won’t stop at refineries. Some of Russia’s largest oil ports, which account for about two-thirds of crude oil and oil product exports, are within range of Ukraine’s drones, RBC said.
“If just one major export facility were to be hit, I think the impact on the market would be significant,” Croft said. “Many of these export facilities are adjacent to refineries, and so far targeting refineries appears to be a deliberate target selection.”
Ukrainian officials acknowledge U.S. concerns but say attacks will continue.
“It is clear that these budgetary revenues must be minimized as much as possible and automatically cut off Mr. Putler’s oxygen,” SBU head Vasyl Maliuk said in a statement to President Putin in general in Ukraine. he said, using a combination of Hitler’s names.
“So while gas station country continues to burn, we will continue to work,” he added.
