As the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) closes, investors will be keeping an eye on several triggers in the stock market in the last week of March. Government announcements on financial results, domestic macroeconomic data, foreign capital inflows, and global cues are the main factors driving market movements.
Domestic stock benchmarks traded volatilely and ended the week in positive territory, rising nearly 0.5% after a rollercoaster ride across a variety of indexes last week. Initially, prices fell to a five-week low amid growing concerns over froth in the mid-cap and small-cap segments. Pressure on select heavyweights has pushed the index down the median.
Also read: FPI pump INRIndian equities are $38.098 billion, debt inflows are INR13,223 billion. Will this trend continue in 2025?
Markets saw the global boom as contributing to the rally in the final session and the index ending in the green. Bargain hunters entered the market and the index rebounded following the Federal Reserve’s announcement that there could be a series of interest rate cuts throughout the year.
Nifty 50 and Sensex prices rose 0.33% and 0.26%, respectively, to settle at $22,096.75 and $72,831.94 this week. Sector trends were mixed, with real estate, autos and metals posting strong gains, while IT and FMCG settled into the red, keeping participants focused. Broader indexes also took a breather, each rising about 1.5%.
“The IT sector was facing headwinds from a slowdown in global spending. Investors shifted their attention to the real estate sector, which was the top performer this week. The market traded in oversold territory. We expect this pullback to continue in the short term as traders punt to buy if stocks are in the market.However, concerns about high valuations in small and mid-cap stocks remain.Large stocks outperform over the medium term. “This is expected to be the case,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.
Also read: Dividend stocks: REC, SBI Card & Payment, CRISIL, etc. will trade ex-dividend next week.See complete list
In a week’s time, major markets will be buzzing with several listings scheduled across the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector. The initial initial public offering (IPO) offering will be launched across the main board and his SME segment. This will be an important week from a domestic and technological perspective, as government announcements are likely to accompany the earnings release.
Overall, analysts expect volatility to remain high due to the scheduled expiry of March derivatives contracts and expect the Nifty50 to be in the 21,750-22,350 range in the upcoming holiday shortened week.
The truncated week includes market closures on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday, so analysts say trading volumes will be lower due to limited market cues. states that it is possible. Experts also advise traders to focus on stock selection and favor index giants.
Here are the main catalysts for the stock market this week:
13 new IPOs, 2 listed on D Street:
In the main board category, SRM Contractors IPO will begin accepting bids on March 26th. In the SME category, Trust Fintech IPO, Vruddhi Engineering Works IPO, Blue Pebble IPO, Aspire & Innovative IPO and GConnect Logitech IPO will open for bids on March 26. .
Radiowalla IPO, TAC Infosec IPO and Yash Optics & Lens IPO will open for subscription on March 27th. Jay Kailash Namkeen IPO, K2 Infragen IPO, Aluwind Architectural IPO, Creative Graphics Solutions India IPO will start recruiting on his March 27th. 28.
Among the listed stocks, Chatta Foods shares will be listed on BSE SME on March 27th. On March 28, Omfurun India shares will be listed on NSE SME.
FII activities:
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the Indian market last week, with net outflows INR836.53 billion, with Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) being buyers in all sessions, with a total investment of INR19,351.62 million, according to stock exchange data.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree in March and turned into steady buyers in the Indian market. Inflows increased in both debt and equity.The total debt investment is INR1,322.3 billion so far this month.
Purchased by FPI INR38.098 billion worth of Indian stocks, total inflows are INR51,542 crore as on March 22, taking into account debt, hybrid, debt VRR and equity, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.
“The upcoming inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan indexes will provide a proactive inflow of capital into the Indian bond market.Furthermore, the expected reduction in global policy rates will make emerging markets more attractive to investors. Bond yields should look more attractive and India’s bond inflow trend should become more sustainable,” said Nitin Raheja, executive director, Julius Baer India.
Global queue:
Investors will be busy tracking developments in global macroeconomic data, with US markets, bond markets, US GDP data and other key numbers set to be released over the next five days. The US federal government last week kept key interest rates unchanged, but expects three cuts in 2024.
Despite maintaining its outlook to cut interest rates to 4.6% by 2024, the latest ‘dot plot’ shows a change in expectations, with fewer members expecting multiple rate cuts this year. ing. The U.S. central bank is fueling bullish mood in U.S. markets, market experts say, with signs of economic resilience and a willingness to tolerate temporary fluctuations in inflation.
“Policymakers plan to cut interest rates three times this year, in line with quarterly forecasts starting in December…U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise in about three months, reflecting growing expectations for cuts in key benchmark interest rates. “It has retreated from its all-time high.” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services.
The S&P 500 ended mostly flat on Friday, but the index posted its biggest weekly gain in 2024 after Jerome Powell’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its dovish stance and outlook for interest rate cuts. The rate was recorded. The benchmark gauge achieved its 20th record this year.
“Participants will continue to take cues from global indexes, particularly the U.S. market, which has been gaining strength week after week. We are now testing the new milestone of 40,000 and the support base has shifted to 39,200 in case of profit taking,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Technical Research, Religare.Broking Co., Ltd.
T+0 payment:
As per the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (SEBI) directive, stock exchanges will introduce same-day or T+0 trade settlement for select groups of securities from March 28.
The initial phase of T+0 settlement is in beta and will be rolled out to a limited list of 25 stocks with a limited number of brokers participating. Details regarding specific securities and participating brokers will be communicated by the exchange at a later date.
Trade settlement involves the transfer of securities and funds between buyers and sellers after a trade is executed. Shorter settlement cycles give investors faster access to securities and funds.
Oil price:
International oil prices fell in premarket trading, but settled flat this week as discussions about the Gaza ceasefire led by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and a strong dollar brought selling pressure. Blinken believed the discussions in Qatar could lead to an agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Additionally, a stronger dollar will increase oil prices for investors holding other currencies, reducing overall demand. The dollar strengthened, capping its second week of strong gains after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates last week.
Brent crude oil futures fell 35 cents to settle at $85.43, while U.S. crude fell 44 cents to settle at $80.63 a barrel. Both oil indexes changed less than 1% this week, according to Reuters.
Corporate activities:
Stocks for several companies will trade ex-dividend and ex-dividend next week, despite two market holidays. Stocks such as CRISIL Ltd, SBI Cards and Payment Services, REC will trade ex-dividend next week from Tuesday, March 26th. Persistent Systems and others announce stock splits.Check the complete list here
Technical view:
Technically, Nifty tried to build support around 21,700. However, the looming hurdle lies in the 20-DMA of 22,170, according to Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart. A sustained rise above this level could lead to short covering, pushing the index to 22,300 or even 22,440.
“While the recent recovery in Nifty can be largely attributed to positive global news, it still faces a hurdle near the short-term moving average, i.e. 20DEMA.” Until it recovers, we reiterate our cautious view on Nifty as profit-taking may resume. On the downside, 21,500-21,800 will remain a cushion,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Brokings.
“Participants need to focus on stock selection and risk management as we see mixed trends across sectors. We reiterate our preference for index majors and indexes. I suggest taking advantage of the rebound in the equity space and reducing the position,” Mishra added.
Bank Nifty is above the important 100-DMA but faces immediate challenges at the psychological level of 47,000, which is also in line with the 20-DMA. “Above this level could lead to short covering and a rise towards the 47,800-48,000 zone. The 46,400-46,000 zone acts as initial support. If the index falls below this, the next potential Support is around 200-DMA of 45,400,” Santosh Meena added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerages and are not the views of Mint. We recommend checking with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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