new york
CNN
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Jan Hadzius predicted a soft landing in late 2022, at a time when many feared a recession was inevitable.
Goldman Sachs’ chief economist made a name for himself in 2008 by warning that toxic mortgage lending would cause recessions and then claiming the opposite.
Now, Hadzius offers a mostly optimistic prediction about another controversial topic in today’s society: artificial intelligence and what it means for the U.S. economy.
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Hadsius said he is very confident that AI will significantly improve worker efficiency and significantly accelerate economic growth over time.
“I think it will lead to increased productivity,” Hatzius said. “The productivity of large numbers of workers in the economy will increase. It’s very likely.”
This productivity improvement is expected to be so significant that Goldman Sachs last year revised upward its long-term U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) forecast.
AI chatbots help employees brainstorm ideas, conduct research, write reports, create presentations, learn about new topics, and identify patterns among vast amounts of data. Even the Treasury Department and IRS are turning to AI to fight financial crime and uncover tax fraud.
Of course, I’m not saying that AI is perfect. it’s not. AI chatbots have been accused of being biased and creating historically inaccurate images of people. AI tools are also known to sometimes “hallucinate” in very believable ways.
There is also a very real risk that AI will replace some workers. Generative AI can already craft detailed emails, summarize thick books, craft witty ads, and envision photorealistic images. All these tasks could previously only be performed by humans.
“Jobs will be destroyed in some areas,” Hadsius told CNN. “There will be parts of the labor market that can replace jobs, and that will lead to some reduction in employment there. You’ll find a way.”
White-collar workers are expected to be particularly exposed to this disruption.
Goldman Sachs previously estimated that up to 300 million full-time jobs worldwide could be automated in some way by generative AI.
Hatzius acknowledged that it is difficult to predict exactly which jobs will be destroyed and which will be saved.
“This is a story of economic growth and innovation over hundreds of years. There are innovations that are fundamentally labor-saving, that reduce jobs in some areas, but increase jobs in others,” he said. “It’s hard to say what that balance will be in the short term. But what I’m more confident about is that it can significantly drive growth over time.”
Satyen Sanghani, an economist and CEO of data intelligence unicorn Aration, says AI productivity gains can help supplement stagnant workforces in the US and elsewhere. He said he was deaf.
“Many baby boomers are retiring and the workforce is becoming increasingly scarce. AI may help slow the rate of workforce decline,” Sanghani said.
For example, Sanghani pointed out how AI chatbots could help some customer support workers in understaffed hotels or medical professionals struggling to sift through complex medical records.
“These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sanghani said, adding that there are places where AI will replace workers.
Even if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund estimated that around 40% of jobs around the world could be affected by AI and warned that this trend is likely to further deepen inequality.
To counter the impact of AI, the IMF called on governments to build social safety nets and worker retraining programs.
Meanwhile, investors remain fascinated by the potential of AI. They are pouring billions into AI stocks, fueling a new gold rush on Wall Street.
But some worry that the AI boom has gone too far.
Jeremy Grantham, who predicted the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis, recently warned that AI is a bubble that could start to deflate.
