Investors will be looking at several stock market cues in the first week of March, including domestic and global macroeconomic data, political developments ahead of the 2024 general elections, oil prices, foreign capital inflows, and other global cues. will pay attention to the trigger.
Indian stock indexes had a volatile week that ended with them extending their winning streak to a third consecutive week and hitting a new all-time high. The Nifty index and Bank Nifty index rose nearly 0.75% and 11.5%, respectively, to end the week at $22,419.55 and $48,636.45. Market capitalization of BSE-listed companies reaches record high INR394.06 million.
Nifty price initially fell to 21,860.65, its lowest since February 15. However, several positive fundamental factors have led to bargain hunting from these low levels. These include India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the third quarter of 2023-24, which was higher than expected at 8.4% compared to the expected 6.7%.
Sector-wise, all sectoral indexes except media, pharmaceuticals and IT ended higher. In addition, the market was further supported by improving global markets and calming US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation.
A special trade conducted by the bourses on March 2 to test a fail-safe system for stock trading saw the Nifty 50 and Sensex end higher. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 60.80 points, or 0.08%, to close at an all-time high of 73,806.15. During the session, the BSE benchmark rose 249.35 points (0.33%) to touch an all-time high of 73,994.70.
Nifty 50 rose 39.65 points (0.18%) to close at a new high of 22,378.40. During the day, the stock hit a lifetime high of $22,419.55, up 80.8 points (0.36%). The blue-chip stock index hit a record high on the back of rising metal stocks, extending the previous day’s sharp rise on the back of GDP statistics and foreign capital inflows.
Market analysts said bank stocks reversed their initial weakness and performed well on the back of an improving economic outlook, while weakness persisted in the IT and pharmaceutical sectors, which are more closely linked to the global economy. he pointed out.
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“Investor sentiment looked cautious at the start of a week filled with economic data releases. However, in final trading, the index Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.
“While strong economic indicators have boosted confidence in the economy, concerns remain over the RBI’s policy decisions amid high liquidity and inflation concerns,” he said. “The correction in mid- and small-cap stocks is ongoing and expected to continue, with regulators seeking disclosure of related risks from AMCs,” Nehru added.
It’s a busy week ahead for major markets, with several initial public offerings (IPOs) and listings scheduled across the mainboard and small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) segments. Next week will be an important week from a domestic and technical perspective as investors will focus on stock price movements along with domestic and global indicators.
Also read: Over 40 small-cap stocks rose between 10 and 40 per cent as the Sensex rose for the third straight week. Among RailTel’s acquirers
Analysts say overall sentiment remains positive, but volatility cannot be ruled out due to continued concerns about a slow rate cut, conflict in the Middle East and overvalued local stocks. Going forward, the Nifty 50 has to cross the 22,400 mark to trigger a fresh rally and move towards 22,600. Experts have advised investors to continue with the ‘buy the dip’ strategy and focus on stock selection until the Nifty 50 crosses above $21,900.
Here are the main drivers for the stock market next week:
Macro data:
Next week, markets will react to domestic macroeconomic data including trade balance, India’s S&P Global Services PMI, and foreign exchange reserves. Investors expecting pre-election rallies will be keeping an eye on political developments ahead of the general election.
8 new IPOs, 7 to be listed on D-Street:
In the main board category, RK Swamy IPO, JG Chemicals IPO and Gopal Namkeen IPO will open for subscription on March 4, 5 and 6 respectively. Among the ongoing issues, Mukka Proteins IPO is scheduled to close on his March 4th bid.
In the SME sector, VR Infraspace IPO and Sona Machinery IPO will open for subscription on March 4 and 5, respectively. Shree Karni Fabcom IPO and Koura Fine Diamond Jewelry IPO will open for bidding on March 6th. Pune E-Stock Broking IPO will open for subscription on March 7. Among the ongoing issues, bidding for MVK Agro Food IPO will end on March 4.
As per the listing plan, shares of Platinum Industries and Exicom Tele-Systems will be listed on stock exchanges BSE and NSE on March 5. Shares of Bharat Highways InvIT will be listed on his March 6th and Mukka Proteins shares will be listed on his March 7th.
Additionally, Owais Metal and Mineral Processing shares and Purv Flexipack shares will be listed on NSE SME on March 4 and 5. Shares of MVK Agro Food will be listed on NSE SME on March 7.
FII activities:
Amid strong market sentiment with the domestic equity benchmark Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high supported by strong macroeconomic indicators, capital outflows fell sharply this week and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have increased their focus on Indian markets. It became a net buy. Domestic institutional investors (DII) are net buyers, with inflows into the country continuing to offset outflows by foreign investors.
Despite FIIs being buyers in 3 out of 5 sessions this week, net investment remains INR23.51 billion.On the other hand, DII became a buyer in 3 out of 5 sessions, and the total investment amount was INR8.268 billion, according to stock exchange data.On a monthly basis, FII INR870 million in the spot market despite high US bond yields.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) ended their January selling streak in Indian markets and turned net buyers in February despite higher US bond yields. However, capital outflow from Indian stocks by FPIs continues. INR2,000.4 billion yen by 2024.
Purchased by FPI INR153.9 billion worth of Indian stocks, total inflows are INR31,817 crore as on February 29, taking into account debt, hybrid, debt VRR and equity, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data. On March 1st, FPI was reinjected INR$4.21 billion in Indian stocks to be offloaded INR$134 million from the bond market.
In February, FPIs were sold heavily in finance and FMCG. Even though US Treasury yields were high, outflows from FPIs initially declined in February but became net buyers by the end of the month. According to market experts, FPIs typically sell heavily when the US 10-year bond yield crosses 4.15%.
Market analysts say FPIs may turn sellers again in the coming days. However, their selling has had no impact on the market, which is at a new all-time high, so they are unlikely to sell aggressively.
Global queue:
Global markets were strong, with the Nasdaq up 2%, the S&P 500 up 0.95%, and the Dow Jones relatively flat through February 2024. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield and dollar index are lower, further supporting market sentiment. Next week, markets will react to global economic data, crude oil inventories, the rupee’s movement against the dollar, and developments in global stock markets.
”Key economic data that may impact the market include China Caixin Services PMI, Inflation Rate, UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI and Construction PMI, US S&P Global Services PMI, API Weekly Crude Inventories, ADP Nonfarm payroll changes, new unemployment claims, and the unemployment rate,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, senior vice president at Master Capital Services.
Geojit’s Vinod Nair said that in addition to Chinese inflation data, additional data from the US such as PMI and payroll data could influence future market trends.
“March 5, 2024 US ISM Services PMI Release, US Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony, March 6, 2024 JOLTS Jobs Release, and March 8, 2024 US Unemployment Rate Closely Forecast “We were closely monitoring the potential impact on market sentiment,” said Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart.
“Oil prices are also gradually increasing and any negative surprises from there could disrupt the market mood. However, the market ignores any bad news and continues its bullish momentum,” Meena said. added.
Oil price:
Oil prices tumbled below 2.0 in the previous session as traders look forward to a second-quarter supply agreement decided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), while also considering the latest economic data from the US, Europe and China. %, marking a weekly increase.
Brent futures for May contract rose $1.64, or 2%, to settle at $83.55 per barrel. The April Brent futures contract expired on February 29th at $83.62 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) April contract rose $1.71 (2.19%) to $79.97 per barrel.
According to Reuters, Brent rose about 2.4% for the week due to contract switching, while WTI rose more than 4.5%. Analysts said they expected OPEC+ to continue its voluntary production cuts through the second quarter of 2024.
Corporate activities:
Shares of several companies including Marico Limited, Panchshell Organics and Sanofi India are set to trade ex-dividend next week from Monday, March 4. Some other companies will also trade on bonuses and installments. next week.Check the complete list here
Technical view:
Ajit Mishra, Senior VP – Technical Research, Religare Broking, is currently targeting 22,800 on Nifty, so participants should continue with the ‘buy the push’ approach till it crosses 21,900.
“While other financial institutions may play a supporting role on a rotating basis, we feel that the participation of the banking group will continue to play a key role in maintaining the prevailing momentum.” Traders should maintain a stock-specific approach and prefer index majors and large mid-cap counters for long trades,” Mishra added.
“Nifty is regaining bullish momentum after a two-month consolidation period. 22,500 is the immediate target level and 22,750 is the next target level. On the downside, 22,200-22,000 is a strong demand zone. It will be,” said Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmarts.
“The overall sentiment remains positive, but the index needs to break through the 22,400 milestone to trigger a new rally,” added Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities. A decisive break above 22,400 could push the index towards 22,600. On the downside, support lies between 22,250 and 22,200. ”
In Banknift, the price has rebounded from the lower band of the ascending channel pattern and is moving towards the upper band.
“Once sustained above 47,500, the index is likely poised to cross the all-time high 48,500 mark in the short term. Support has been set in the 47,000-46,900 range and any decline into this support zone is considered a favorable buying opportunity.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerages and are not the views of Mint. We recommend checking with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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