Cellular IoT is set to experience strong growth over the next decade, with 5G RedCap (Reduced Capability) becoming the dominant connectivity technology for low power wide area networks (LPWAN).
According to ReTHINK Research, 5G RedCap standard and enhanced variants (RedCap and eRedCap) will account for nearly one-third (30.17%) of all cellular IoT connections by 2030. This growth will primarily come at the expense of the retirement and gradual decline of 2G networks. 4G IoT protocols.
The first RedCap devices are expected to be commercially available in 2024, and growth will accelerate after eRedCap hits the market around 2026. Rethink Research predicts that RedCap technology will overtake 4G as the leading cellular IoT platform between 2032 and 2033.
One of the attractions of 5G RedCap is its higher revenue potential per connection compared to existing IoT protocols. By 2030, RedCap is projected to generate 61.3 percent of total cellular IoT revenue ($16.6 billion out of $27.1 billion), but only account for 30 percent of connectivity.
Geographically, the Asia Pacific (APAC) region will continue to dominate the IoT landscape, accounting for 61% of all connections by 2030. This advantage is mainly due to the early large-scale deployment of his NB-IoT devices in China. India’s growth will help offset some of the decline as China approaches saturation.
ReTHINK Research’s forecasts suggest that the outlook for 4G CAT-M and NB-IoT remains positive in the near term. His 5G standardization work is underway to enhance his NB-IoT with 5G integration, non-terrestrial network (NTN) support, transparent roaming, etc.
While 4G IoT still reigns supreme, 5G RedCap is poised to take over the top spot within the next decade. This timing coincides with the demise of 2G and 3G, providing a clear path to new 5G technology that will enable the next wave of IoT innovation.
Research summary available here (Full version has paywall)
(Photo by Honey Yanivel Minaya Cruz on Unsplash)
See also: Nokia boosts IoT capabilities for industrial edge
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