According to Ericsson’s latest mobility report, the number of 5G subscribers is expected to reach 5.6 billion worldwide by the end of 2029, at which point 5G is expected to become the dominant network in all but three regions.
Ericsson forecasts that globally, 5G will account for 60% of all mobile subscriptions by the end of 2029 and 75% of total mobile data traffic, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% through 2029. 5G accounted for 25% of mobile data traffic last year, up from 17% in 2022. The report notes that annual growth rates of mobile data traffic over the forecast period are expected to slow at different rates in different regions, depending on regional market trends.
Ericsson noted that traffic growth may be volatile, pointing to factors such as global macroeconomic shifts, the rise of fixed wireless access (FWA) connections, and a migration of subscribers to later generations in markets such as India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Excluding FWA, total global mobile data traffic will grow three-fold, reaching 313 exabytes per month in 2029. Including FWA, this figure will grow approximately 3.5-fold, reaching 466 exabytes per month in 2029.
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According to Ericsson, there are currently about 300 service providers offering 5G services worldwide, of which 50 have launched 5G standalone networks. There are now more than 1.7 billion 5G subscribers, with about 160 million added in the first three months of this year. By the end of 2024, there are expected to be just under 600 million 5G subscribers worldwide.
These figures were revised upwards from previous forecasts due to a brighter outlook for African markets, as countries are gradually phasing out older networks such as 2G and 3G, Daniel Aude, head of Ericsson Singapore, Philippines and Brunei, said at a press conference in Singapore on Thursday.
He noted that the smartphone market will also recover this year, with shipments up 6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. He added that service providers in 5G-advanced markets such as Australia and Singapore continue to focus on innovation in speed, coverage and differentiated services.
5G is expected to become the dominant network in most regions by 2029, but will lag behind 4G in three regions: Southeast Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Southeast Africa. In other regions, such as North America and Western Europe, 5G will account for 90% and 86% of mobile subscriptions, respectively, but LTE or 4G is expected to remain the dominant network in these three regions in 2029.
Precursor networks to 5G will account for 50 percent of mobile subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania, including Singapore, Australia and Thailand, compared to 43 percent of mobile subscriptions in the region by the end of the forecast period. According to Ericsson, 5G subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania will reach 560 million in 2029, driven by more affordable devices, promotional plans and larger data bundles offered by service providers.
And just like with 5G, carriers will need to explore commercial use cases to advance GenAI.
As for why 4G and not 5G is expected to maintain the majority share in the three regions, Odeh said adoption will depend on the development and maturity of the local market. He further noted that rather than waiting to transition to 6G networks, operators want to continue investing in 5G services to generate new revenue growth, especially as they seek to halt declining ARPU (average revenue per user).
4G is expected to account for 50% of mobile subscribers in Southeast Asia by 2029, but this figure will be lower than last year’s 78% share as 5G expands to 43% by the end of the forecast period. Citing data from service providers in Thailand and Australia and government agencies in Singapore and Malaysia, Ericsson said the 5G subscriber base in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia and Thailand currently accounts for 20% of the total.
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The report also highlighted that while 5G network coverage has expanded in the Philippines over the past year, 5G penetration and data consumption remain low.
Ericsson noted that Indonesia also has limited 5G subscriber numbers as service providers wait for mid-band spectrum allocations to expand 5G coverage. Vietnam also recently held a 5G mid-band spectrum auction and is expected to launch commercial 5G within the next six to 12 months.
5.5G is also being touted as the network that will improve connectivity for businesses.
With the intensive rollout of 5G networks, widespread coverage and affordable services, India is set to reach around 119 million 5G subscribers in 2023. This figure is projected to grow to 840 million by the end of 2029 as 5G penetration increases, accounting for 65% of mobile subscribers in India, Bhutan and Nepal.
According to Ericsson, the 4G share in the region is expected to fall from 63% in 2023 to 32% in 2029, while the number of connections is expected to fall from 740 million to 410 million.
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“Differentiated connectivity allows users, developers and enterprises to access the right level of connectivity at the right time for their needs, ensuring seamless performance and resource efficiency in the network,” said Ode. “Leveraging 5G Standalone architecture, a high-performance programmable network will open new opportunities for service innovation and performance-based business models.”
He added that the introduction of devices with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities may shape user behavior in the future, but it remains to be seen how it will affect the future design of smartphones. This will depend on the use cases and applications of AI in mobile, he noted.
But greater adoption of AI will inevitably lead to increased mobile data traffic and a greater need to address potential latency issues, he said.
