It has already been three to four years since the mobile phone industry rolled out 5G networks. And while the industry is still searching for killer use cases that will solidify 5G’s place at the top of cellular technology, this generation, at its core, is doing what it’s supposed to do:
5G networks continue to offer faster services, generally better than 4G. But compared to his 5G service a year ago, network upload and download times are generally faster around the world, according to speed test data from network diagnostics company Ookla. Even the most robust 5G networks can barely achieve 1 gigabit per second, well short of the International Telecommunication Union’s ideal download speed of 20 Gb/s.
Part of the problem is the same problem that every cellular generation has had. These are normal growing pains as more customers buy new phones and other devices that can take advantage of these networks. “Everyone was focused on his 4G, and so were we,” says Mark Giles, industry analyst at Ookla. “So in the initial rollout of 4G, there was a lot of capacity to absorb the initial users. And as you get more users, that capacity is used up, so you have to look at densification. .”
Even with the failure to build mmWave networks, 5G has not been able to overcome growing pains.
Giles points out that most network operators began their 5G rollout by deploying non-standalone 5G networks. In such cases, the 5G network will be built on the core infrastructure of the existing 4G network. Non-standalone 5G won’t perform as well as the standalone 5G alternative, but it’s much cheaper and easier to deploy because it doesn’t have to be built from scratch.
This strategy hinders 5G deployment as carriers are restricted to building 5G networks where there are existing cell towers and other infrastructure. But cost is not the only factor. There are also regulatory and permitting issues faced by operators. Finding a place to initially install a new cell site can be the biggest challenge, especially in densely populated urban areas.
Outside the city, problems persist. A big selling point of 5G is the availability of new spectrum bands, particularly mmWave bands (24-40 gigahertz), which allow for lower latency and higher data rates. However, keep in mind that all higher frequencies do not travel very far. This is great for cities, but not so much for suburbs and rural areas. As more people in more places start using his 5G network, we can expect some reduction in network performance overall due to that fact.
Millimeter waves have little penetration outside of a few countries, including the United States, and even then they are limited. Companies like Verizon, initially bullish on mmWave, have instead pivoted to other newly available bands, particularly the C-band (4-8 GHz).
As of 2022, “140 operators in 24 countries have mmWave licenses,” Giles said, citing data from the Global Mobile Suppliers Organization (GSA). “But it’s only been implemented in 28 out of 16 countries, so it’s a small group. Only a small number of operators are actually targeting it.”
The 5G download speed target of 20 Gb/s, originally cited by the International Telecommunication Union, remains only a goal.
Millimeter waves have limited use in areas with large crowds, such as sports stadiums and airports. But whether it’s too expensive or technologically limited, the failure to build mmWave as a broader backbone component of 5G networks won’t help 5G overcome its growing pains. did not.
Of course, coverage is not universal. Especially as the technology behind mobile phone networks becomes more complex, theoretical maximum download speeds become harder to realistically achieve. The download speed target of 20 Gb/s cited by ITU is just that: a goal. “Performance like that will never be seen. It’s because so much spectrum is bundled together into devices with advanced capabilities, completely stationary, and with no one else in the cell. It’s like the perfect conditions on a sunny day,” Giles says.
Even more achievable is what the ITU has set as the “user experience data rate,” which the organization says should be 100 megabits/second downstream and 50 megabits/second upstream. According to this metric, the median 5G network experience in many countries still meets ITU benchmarks, although speeds have slowed over the past year.
The degree of 5G performance degradation varies by country, with some countries bucking the general trend. Ookla’s speed test data identifies four of his: Canada, Italy, Qatar, and the United States. That said, Giles doesn’t think that means there’s necessarily anything in common between them.
For the United States, Giles suggests that the increased availability of new spectrum has so far allowed the country’s carriers to avoid new network congestion before it becomes too congested. In contrast, in Qatar, major investments in the lead-up to the 2022 FIFA World Cup included building a robust 5G network.
While it is too early to tell whether or how 6G development will be affected by 5G’s early stumbles, there are several possible impacts. For example, given the lackluster debut of mmWave, the industry has spent less time researching terahertz waves, instead using cellular technology and Wi-Fi in areas that require dense coverage. One possibility is to consider how Fi technology can be integrated.
“I think this highlights the disconnect between these G visions and what’s actually happening on the ground,” says Giles. “I think that’s what this deterioration really highlights.”
This article will appear in the September 2023 print issue as “5G Growing Pains.””
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