PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – Oregon counties will continue to lose population in 2023, according to a new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, according to the Oregon Bureau of Economic Analysis, but officials are hopeful for post-pandemic growth. It is said that he is holding a
Nationwide, more counties experienced population growth than loss in 2023, but population growth slowed in the western United States. US Census Bureau Said.
According to the Census Bureau, Oregon will see a population loss of more than 6,000 people from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, and the population loss in the West includes both urban and rural counties. It is.
In a post to Oregon Bureau of Economic AnalysisState economist Josh Lehner said the population data is a mid-year estimate that measures the change from July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023, when the country was not fully out of the pandemic. He explained that this made it difficult to assemble population data.
“On the other hand, these 2023 projections are a continuation of a pandemic-era pattern: Larger cities and expensive metros across the country lost population, while suburban counties grew faster,” Lehner said. said. “On the other hand, as I have written previously, the pendulum is swinging back from the height of the pandemic patterns, so some of these patterns are calmer than they were a year or two ago. Yes, urban counties The population has declined again, but at a slower pace than before. Rural areas in a broader sense are no longer experiencing relatively large growth, and many regions are once again experiencing population decline. ”
Lehner noted that the Portland metro area’s population went from declining in 2022 to “almost flat” at -0.03% in 2023. This change is a combination of shrinking population declines on the Oregon side of the Columbia River and robust population growth in Southwest Washington, although slower than at the height of the pandemic, he said. .
Lehner said the number of Oregon counties with population declines improved from 22 to 17, and half of the state’s 36 counties had population increases in 2023 compared to 2022, leading to the pandemic. “The pendulum is beginning to swing back,” he said.
“What stands out to me is the acceleration of population loss on both the coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry) and the valley (Hood River, Wasco), followed by continued decline in the mid-Valley (Benton, Curry). (Lynn) and Malheur, which has bucked the rural trend for years, perhaps due in part to the spillover effect of the Boise metro,” Lehner said.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis also noted differences in the Census Bureau’s data compared to Portland State University’s population data.
“Overall, it’s great to have different demographics and population estimates. They provide different looks and insights. The challenge is when different data sets are different. Currently, PSUs are not able to predict the population of each state in recent years. The census estimates a slight increase, while the census estimates a slight decrease. What we do know is that both estimates indicate that Oregon’s population is growing rapidly. “Our office has noted that the population has generally stagnated during the pandemic,” Lehner said.
He continued: “However, these estimates differ at the local level. This final graph today shows the change in county population estimates from 2020 to 2023, between PSU numbers on the horizontal axis and census numbers on the vertical axis. We are comparing rates. In counties above the dotted line, census estimates increased faster than PSU, while in counties below the dotted line, PSU estimates increased faster than census ( or the decrease was small).”
Lehner added: This will impact future economic and earnings prospects. We have revised our forecasts downward, citing both recent results and lower expectations for future growth. Having said that, we still believe that a gradual recovery in immigration is the most likely outlook in the coming years. ”
Lehner said the economic department still believes that migration will rebound in the state, adding, “Right now, slowing population growth and population declines are slowing down productivity to increase incomes and encourage migration.” “This means that business and capital investment that leads to improvement is even more important than before.” economic growth. “
According to the Census Bureau, the Portland metro area experienced a mix of population growth and decline from 2022 to 2023.
Multnomah County’s estimated population will be 789,698 in 2023, compared to 794,563 in 2022, according to Census Bureau data.
Clackamas County has an estimated population of 423,173 in 2023, compared to an estimated 423,118 in 2022, according to Census Bureau data.
Based on census data, Washington County’s estimated population in 2023 was 598,865, compared to an estimated 2022 population of 600,086.
Officials say more counties across the country are experiencing population growth, with about 60% of U.S. counties experiencing population growth from 2022 to 2023, which is higher than the population growth from 2021 to 2022. This is an increase from 52% in the same county.
“Migration patterns within the country are changing, and the impact on counties is particularly pronounced,” said Lauren Bowers, director of the Census Bureau’s Population Projections Branch. “Regions that experienced high out-migration during the pandemic, such as the Midwest and Northeast, now have more counties experiencing population growth. Meanwhile, counties in the West, such as Arizona and Idaho, are experiencing population growth. It’s slowing down.”
Overall, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that more counties will experience population growth than population loss in 2023, with counties in the South experiencing faster population growth and the Northeast and Midwest experiencing more population loss. I found out that it is changing.
Meanwhile, the Western U.S., which has the highest average population of any other region of the country, fell behind the South in 2023.
